Report: Baskonia pay Markus Howard €2M to leave for half the salary at Zenit
Our take €2M only makes sense if it buys a scorer
Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 7 · Athens
PanathinaikosvsBaskonia Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz · basketball prediction
Tip-off · UK
19:15
Date · UK
22 OCT
Local time
21:15 · 22 OCT
City
Athens
Status
Pre-match
PAO21:15BKNPre-match
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Panathinaikos vs Baskonia?
Our Panathinaikos vs Baskonia prediction for round 7 of the EuroLeague: Panathinaikos win big at the Telekom Center in Athens, 92:75, and cover −15.5 points, overtime included. Panathinaikos are 5-1 with a point difference of +15 a game; Baskonia are 1-5, have conceded 94 points a game and have just changed coach, with Velimir Perasović replacing Galbiati. The line and our rating both make Panathinaikos 89% to win. Our pick: Panathinaikos −15.5 · analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 85:76
- 92:75
- Our estimate
- 45–50%
- Market
- Panathinaikos −15.5
- Price now
- 1.91
Panathinaikos vs Baskonia at a glance
| Match | Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz |
|---|---|
| Competition | EuroLeague · Regular season, round 7 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 19:15 UK |
| Venue | Telekom Center Athens, Athens |
| Our pick | Panathinaikos −15.5 · 1.91 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 45–50% |
| Predicted score | 92:75 |
| Main reason | We think Panathinaikos win this comfortably. |
No. 04 · Form
Panathinaikos vs Baskonia: recent form
Panathinaikos 4-1 in their last 5. Baskonia 1-4.
- Panathinaikos
- Lost 81:91 at home to Hapoel on Fri 16 Oct · six days since the last EuroLeague game
- Baskonia
- Lost 78:86 at Virtus on Fri 16 Oct · six days since the last EuroLeague game · new coach Velimir Perasović
Panathinaikos4-1
- Lossvs Hapoel Tel Aviv81:91
- Winvs Partizan72:55
- Winvs Fenerbahçe92:74
- Winvs Maccabi Tel Aviv90:67
- Winvs ASVEL102:79
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 87.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 73.2
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 160.6
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +14.2
Baskonia1-4
- Lossvs Virtus Bologna78:86
- Lossvs Dubai79:93
- Lossvs Beşiktaş84:92
- Winvs Olimpia Milano86:76
- Lossvs Valencia88:111
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 83.0
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 91.6
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 174.6
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −8.6
Key factPanathinaikos won their first five, four of them by 17 points or more: 91:72 against Paris, 102:79 against ASVEL, 90:67 against Maccabi, 92:74 against Fenerbahçe and 72:55 at Partizan. Then they lost 81:91 at home to Hapoel last Friday. Baskonia's only win is 86:76 against Olimpia Milano; they lost by 23 at Valencia and 17 to Olympiacos, then 84:92 to Beşiktaş and 79:93 to Dubai at home and 78:86 at Virtus. Last season Panathinaikos beat Baskonia twice, 86:84 in Vitoria and 93:74 in Athens.
| EuroLeague so far | PAO | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 5-1 | 1-5 |
| Points for per game | 88.0 | 84.0 |
| Points against per game | 73.0 | 94.0 |
| Point difference per game | +15.0 | -10.0 |
| Last season | PAO | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 22-16 | 13-25 |
| Points for per game | 87.2 | 88.3 |
| Points against per game | 84.9 | 93.1 |
| Point difference per game | +2.3 | -4.7 |
EuroLeague 2026-27, 6 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Panathinaikos vs Baskonia injury report
A new coach in Vitoria; Panathinaikos still waiting on Nunn and Sloukas.
Panathinaikos
- QuestionableKendrick NunnHas not played this season; ruled out of round 6
- QuestionableKostas SloukasHas not played this season; ruled out of round 6
- QuestionableNikos RogkavopoulosRuled out of round 6; status for this game not confirmed
- QuestionableIsaac BongaMissed round 5, questionable for round 6; status for this game not confirmed
Baskonia
No absences reported.
TacticsVelimir Perasović has replaced Galbiati at Baskonia, and sporting director Félix Fernández said captain Tadas Sedekerskis and two or three others had been outside the old coach's plans (Eurohoops, 21 Oct); Markus Howard has left for Zenit. Chris Duarte, A.J. Lawson, DJ Stewart and Kenneth Faried have played the most minutes. For Panathinaikos, Kendrick Nunn and Kostas Sloukas had not played this season and were ruled out of round 6, with Nikos Rogkavopoulos also out and Isaac Bonga questionable (EuroLeague injury report, 16 Oct). Even without them, Sylvain Francisco, Mathias Lessort, Guerschon Yabusele and Nigel Hayes-Davis have won five of six. No report for round 7 was out when we checked.
In the news
Panathinaikos lose unbeaten run 81-91 as Itoudis outfoxes Obradovic in Athens
Our take The minus 10 hurts more than the defeat
Baskonia sacked Galbiati at 3-0 in Spain. Europe's 95.6 points a night explain why
Our take Baskonia changed coach for its defence, not its results
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Panathinaikos vs Baskonia?
The preview we found picks the same handicap.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsgambler | Panathinaikos 93:74; their best bet is Panathinaikos −15.5 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and on a big margin. Our rating has Panathinaikos by 14.7 points and the line by about the same, so −15.5 is close to a coin flip: we expect the cover, 92:75, but it needs Panathinaikos to keep pushing in the fourth quarter.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Panathinaikos vs Baskonia predicted score
Lessort and Francisco against the second-leakiest defence in the league.
92:75 to Panathinaikos is our main score: Lessort wins the paint, Francisco runs the break, and Baskonia, who have conceded 94 points a game, break down again in the second half. 85:76 is the alternative: Perasović tightens the defence, Panathinaikos win without forcing it and the margin stops short of 16. Baskonia's way to win is a new-coach bounce and a cold home night like the one against Hapoel. The pick needs Panathinaikos to win by 16 or more, overtime included.
- Predicted score
- 92:75
- Alternative
- 85:76
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Panathinaikos vs Baskonia pick: Panathinaikos −15.5
Panathinaikos −15.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Panathinaikos win this comfortably. They are +15 a game after six rounds, they have beaten four opponents by 17 or more, and Baskonia concede 94 points a game, second most in the EuroLeague after ASVEL. The coaching change adds uncertainty rather than strength for now. We expect a margin around 17, which covers −15.5, but a handicap this big is close to even, so this stays an analysis.
Our probability45–50%
Our pickPanathinaikos −15.5
Odds1.91
Main scenario92:75
- Wins with
- 92:7598:75100:7998:7186:6796:65…
- Loses with
- 86:7382:7588:85…
- Our scenario
- 92:75alternative 85:76
What would change our mind Lessort or Francisco missing for Panathinaikos, or Baskonia confirming Sedekerskis back in a full rotation, would make us review the handicap.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 1.07 | 93.5% |
| Baskonia win | 8.86 | 11.3% |
| Panathinaikos −15.5 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Baskonia +15.5 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Panathinaikos −21.5 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Over 172.5 points | 1.86 | 53.8% |
| Under 172.5 points | 1.89 | 52.9% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Panathinaikos lost at home to Hapoel by ten only six days ago.
- A team with a new coach often plays harder in the first games, and Sedekerskis may be back in the rotation.
- At a 15-point margin, a few easy baskets in garbage time can decide the handicap either way.
- Our rating and the line both put −15.5 close to 50%, and no official report for round 7 was out when we checked.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Panathinaikos −15.5 at 1.91 · analysis only. We expect 92:75; a 16-point margin is too close to even for a bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Panathinaikos −15.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.