Partizan sign an ex-NBA shooter the day before the Belgrade derby
Our take Reeves is a signing for November, not tonight
Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 7 · Belgrade
PartizanvsCrvena Zvezda Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade vs Crvena Zvezda · basketball prediction
Tip-off · UK
19:45
Date · UK
22 OCT
Local time
20:45 · 22 OCT
City
Belgrade
Status
Pre-match
PAR20:45CZVPre-match
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda?
Our Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda prediction for the Belgrade derby in round 7 of the EuroLeague: Partizan win a tight one at Belgrade Arena, 81:79, overtime included. The line makes it a pure 50/50; Crvena Zvezda are 4-2 and rate a little better, Partizan are 3-3 after three defeats in a row but won both derbies last season. Our rating gives Partizan 53%, all of it from the home court. Our pick: Partizan to win · analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 80:84
- 81:79
- Our estimate
- 50–54%
- Market
- Partizan win
- Price now
- 1.90
Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda at a glance
| Match | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade vs Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|
| Competition | EuroLeague · Regular season, round 7 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 19:45 UK |
| Venue | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade |
| Our pick | Partizan win · 1.90 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 50–54% |
| Predicted score | 81:79 |
| Main reason | We think Partizan edge it. |
No. 04 · Form
Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda: recent form
Partizan 2-3 in their last 5. Crvena Zvezda 4-1.
- Partizan
- Lost 65:74 at Fenerbahçe on Thu 15 Oct · seven days since the last EuroLeague game
- Crvena Zvezda
- Beat Paris 90:81 on Fri 16 Oct · six days since the last EuroLeague game · no travel: both clubs play in Belgrade
Partizan2-3
- Lossvs Fenerbahçe65:74
- Lossvs Panathinaikos55:72
- Lossvs Real Madrid76:86
- Winvs Bayern86:84
- Winvs Paris92:79
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 74.8
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 79.0
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 153.8
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −4.2
Crvena Zvezda4-1
- Winvs Paris90:81
- Winvs ASVEL84:82
- Winvs Dubai77:58
- Winvs Anadolu Efes77:72
- Lossvs Hapoel Tel Aviv80:81
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 81.6
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 74.8
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 156.4
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +6.8
Key factPartizan began with three wins, 92:76 against Olimpia Milano, 92:79 at Paris and 86:84 at Bayern, then lost 76:86 at Real Madrid, 55:72 at home to Panathinaikos and 65:74 at Fenerbahçe. Crvena Zvezda lost their first two at home, 77:83 to Zalgiris and 80:81 to Hapoel, and have won four straight since: 77:72 against Anadolu Efes, 77:58 in Dubai, 84:82 at ASVEL and 90:81 against Paris. Last season Partizan won both derbies, 79:76 at home in December and 89:82 away in April.
| EuroLeague so far | PAR | CZV |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Points for per game | 77.7 | 80.8 |
| Points against per game | 78.5 | 76.2 |
| Point difference per game | -0.8 | +4.7 |
| Last season | PAR | CZV |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 16-22 | 21-17 |
| Points for per game | 81.6 | 87.6 |
| Points against per game | 86.6 | 86.2 |
| Point difference per game | -4.9 | +1.3 |
EuroLeague 2026-27, 6 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda injury report
Marinković back in training; Partizan add Antonio Reeves.
Partizan
- QuestionableVanja MarinkovićCleared for full training under medical supervision on 20 Oct; not confirmed for this game
Crvena Zvezda
- QuestionableJohnathan MotleyThigh injury, out since round 4; not confirmed for this game
- QuestionableStefan MiljenovićAnkle injury, questionable for round 6; not confirmed for this game
TacticsVanja Marinković has been cleared for full training under medical supervision (Eurohoops, 20 Oct), but it is not confirmed that he plays, and Partizan have signed the former NBA guard Antonio Reeves (Eurohoops, 21 Oct), whose registration for the derby is not confirmed either. Carlik Jones runs the team with 6 assists and 17.3 PIR a game. For Crvena Zvezda, Johnathan Motley has been out since round 4 with a thigh injury and Stefan Miljenović was questionable for round 6 with an ankle problem (EuroLeague injury report, 16 Oct). Chris Jones (6 assists), Semi Ojeleye, Jordan Nwora and Chima Moneke carry their rotation. No report for round 7 was out when we checked.
In the news
Partizan's derby problem: Jekiri out, 65 points a game in a three-game slide
Our take Partizan's gap is 25 points, not one centre
Obradović said no to Partizan's gift. Then his defence held them to 55 points
Our take He said everything to Partizan with his defence
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda predicted score
Carlik Jones in a full Belgrade Arena.
81:79 to Partizan is our main score: a full arena, a low-scoring game between two sides who allow under 79 points, and Carlik Jones deciding the last minutes. 80:84 to Crvena Zvezda is the alternative: their deeper bench of Ojeleye, Nwora and Moneke wins the fourth quarter and their run reaches five. A one-sided game either way, ten points or more, is the least likely outcome. Any Partizan win makes our pick, overtime included.
- Predicted score
- 81:79
- Alternative
- 80:84
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Partizan vs Crvena Zvezda pick: Partizan win
Partizan win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Partizan edge it. In a derby the home crowd counts for more than usual, and Partizan won both meetings last season, one of them away. Carlik Jones gives them the best late-game creator on the floor. But Crvena Zvezda are in better form and rate a little better, so both results are equally possible and we are not sure enough to bet.
Our probability50–54%
Our pickPartizan win
Odds1.90
Main scenario81:79
- Our scenario
- 81:79alternative 80:84
What would change our mind Carlik Jones missing for Partizan would turn our pick to Crvena Zvezda.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Partizan win | 1.90 | 52.6% |
| Crvena Zvezda win | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Partizan +1.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Crvena Zvezda −1.5 | 2.00 | 50% |
| Over 164.5 points | 1.96 | 51% |
| Under 164.5 points | 1.80 | 55.6% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- On a neutral court our rating makes Crvena Zvezda the better side by almost three points.
- Partizan have lost three in a row and scored only 55 and 65 points in two of them.
- Crvena Zvezda have won four straight, two of them away, in Dubai and at ASVEL.
- Reeves is new and Marinković is just back in training: Partizan's rotation tonight is not known.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Partizan win at 1.90 · analysis only. We expect 81:79; at 50/50 the derby is too open for a bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Partizan win, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
Read next
- EuroLeaguePanathinaikos vs Baskonia prediction, 22 October
- EuroLeaguePartizan vs Panathinaikos prediction, 13 October
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.