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Football · Europe · Europa League · League phase, matchday 3 · Glasgow
CelticvsCelta Celtic vs Celta Vigo · prediction
Kick-off
20:00
Date
22 OCT
City
Glasgow
Status
Pre-lineups
CEL20:00CEVPre-lineups
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Celtic vs Celta?
Our Celtic vs Celta Vigo prediction is Celtic or a draw, most likely a 2:1 Celtic win, in the third round of the Europa League league phase at Celtic Park in Glasgow on Thursday at 20:00 UK. Both sides have lost their first two games and have no points, so a defeat here would leave either side with little room in the league phase.The line makes Celta a narrow favourite, but the game numbers favour Celtic: over ten matches they had 65% of the shots on target, Celta 41%. Celtic come in after a 7:1 win over Hearts and have won eight of their nine league games. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 63–66%
- Market
- Celtic or draw
- Price now
- 1.51
Celtic vs Celta at a glance
| Match | Celtic vs Celta Vigo |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Glasgow |
| Venue | Celtic Park, Glasgow |
| Our pick | Celtic or draw · 1.51 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 63–66% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | A European night at Celtic Park against a side that hits the target less than half as often: over ten games Celtic managed 8.2 shots on target a match, Celta 3.3. |
No. 04 · Form
Celtic vs Celta: recent form
Celtic 6 from 15. Celta 7 from 15.
Celtic6 pts
- Winvs Hearts7:1
- Lossvs Benfica1:4
- Winvs Motherwell2:0
- Lossvs Rangers0:1
- Lossvs Ferencváros1:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Celta7 pts
- Winvs Alavés2:1
- Lossvs Juventus1:2
- Drawvs Elche0:0
- Winvs Racing Santander5:0
- Lossvs Omonia0:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factCeltic beat Hearts 7:1 at home on Sunday, after a 1:4 defeat at Benfica in the Europa League, 2:0 at Motherwell, 0:1 at home to Rangers and 1:3 at home to Ferencváros on matchday one. Over ten games they are 6-0-4 with 19 goals for and 14 against, and they hit the target 8.2 times a game while allowing 4.4. Celta beat Alavés 2:1 at home on Sunday, after 1:2 at home to Juventus, 0:0 at Elche, 5:0 against Racing Santander and 0:1 at Omonia. They are 2-4-4 over ten games with eleven goals for and ten against, they have 11 points from nine LaLiga games, and they create 0.98 expected goals a game in the league while allowing 1.23 (Understat). Celta hit the target just 3.3 times a game in that run. Both play on Sunday: Celtic at Hibernian, Celta at home to Real Betis. The clubs last met in the 2002/03 UEFA Cup, when Celtic went through on away goals after 2:2 on aggregate (Goal.mu).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Celtic vs Celta team news
Celtic short at the back; Celta without Borja Iglesias and Starfelt.
Celtic
- OutCameron Carter-VickersUnavailable
- OutAlistair JohnstonUnavailable
- DoubtAuston TrustyPreviews disagree
- OutJotaNot eligible for the Europa League
Celta
- OutBorja IglesiasInjured
- OutCarl StarfeltThigh injury
- OutMiguel RománUnavailable
- OutJones El-AbdellaouiOut until next year
- OutÁlvaro NúñezUnavailable
TacticsGoal.mu lists Cameron Carter-Vickers, Alistair Johnston and Auston Trusty as unavailable for Celtic, and Jota is not eligible for the Europa League. The previews disagree on Trusty: Daily Sports puts him in the side, so the shape of Celtic's back four is the main open question before kick-off. Goal.mu's expected Celtic side is a 4-2-3-1: Sinisalo; Donovan, Murray, Scales, Tierney; McGregor, Baur; Durán, Nygren, Osmand; Høgh. Claudio Giráldez's Celta are missing Borja Iglesias (injured) and Carl Starfelt (thigh), plus Miguel Román, Jones El-Abdellaoui and Álvaro Núñez (Goal.mu). The expected Celta side is a 3-4-3: Radu; Javi Rodríguez, Cáceres, Yoel Lago; Javi Rueda, Ilaix Moriba, Febas, Carreira; Iago Aspas, Jutglà, Swedberg. Official line-ups come an hour before kick-off.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 5
Who do others back in Celtic vs Celta?
Five of the six previews we read have Celtic not losing.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Goal.mu | Celtic 2:1 Celta Vigo | Same side |
| LiveScore | Celtic 2:0 Celta Vigo | Same side |
| Football Whispers | Celtic 1:0 Celta Vigo | Same side |
| MightyTips | Celtic 2:2 Celta Vigo | Same side |
| Statz | Celtic 1:1 Celta Vigo | Same side |
Our positionWe side with Goal.mu on the score. A sixth preview we read backs a 2:1 Celta win; we do not, because Celta have scored once in two Europa League games and rarely hit the target.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Celtic vs Celta predicted score
Celtic Park pushes, Celta counter with Aspas.
Celtic will have to take the game to Celta: at home, with no points, they need a win and they shoot often, 18 shots a game over their last ten. Celta's expected 3-4-3 gives them Aspas, Jutglà and Swedberg to run into the space behind, and with Celtic's back line patched up, a Celta goal is part of our scenario. Over 90 minutes we expect Celtic's volume of chances to tell. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative. Celtic or draw comes in with 2:1, 1:0, 2:0, 1:1, 2:2 or any other result except a Celta win; only 0:1, 1:2 or another away win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
CEL
CEV
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Celtic vs Celta pick: Celtic or draw
Celtic or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
A European night at Celtic Park against a side that hits the target less than half as often: over ten games Celtic managed 8.2 shots on target a match, Celta 3.3. Celta have won only two of their last ten and already lost away in this competition at Omonia. Celtic have won eight of nine league games and scored seven on Sunday, and five of the six previews we read have them not losing. We keep it as analysis because Celtic's defence is thin and the previews disagree on who plays at the back.
Our probability63–66%
Our pickCeltic or draw
Odds1.51
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind If Celtic start without two of their first-choice centre-backs, we would see a draw as the likeliest result rather than a Celtic win.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 2.67 | 37.5% |
| Draw | 3.49 | 28.7% |
| Celta win | 2.48 | 40.3% |
| Celtic or draw | 1.51 | 66.2% |
| Celta or draw | 1.45 | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 47.2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.58 | 63.3% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Celta could win.
- Carter-Vickers, Johnston and possibly Trusty are missing from Celtic's defence.
- Celta matched Juventus for long spells in their 1:2 home defeat.
- The line still makes Celta a narrow favourite.
- Celtic conceded seven goals in their two Europa League games.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Celtic or draw · analysis only. We expect 2:1, but the gaps in Celtic's defence leave us not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.