Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad prediction and odds

No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?

Our Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad prediction is both teams to score, most likely a 1:2 Real Sociedad win, in the third round of the Europa League league phase at Åråsen on Thursday at 20:00 UK (21:00 local). Both sides have one point from two games. Pellegrino Matarazzo's Real Sociedad are fourth in LaLiga and scored 13 goals in their last five matches, but they also allow 1.90 expected goals a game in the league, and both teams scored in eight of their last ten games. Every league-phase match of both clubs so far has seen goals at both ends. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 1:2
Our estimate: 56–60%

Both teams to score · odds 1.72Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Both teams to score
Price now: 1.72

Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad at a glance

Match	Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad
Competition	UEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 3
Kick-off	22 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Lillestrøm
Venue	Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrøm
Our pick	Both teams to score · 1.72 · analysis only
Our estimate	56–60%
Predicted score	1:2
Main reason	Real Sociedad score this autumn, but they also concede often: both teams scored in eight of their last ten games, and their defence allows almost two expected goals a game in LaLiga.

No. 04 · Form

Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: recent form

Lillestrøm 5 from 15. Real Sociedad 10 from 15.

Lillestrøm5 pts

Winvs Sandefjord2:0
Drawvs Sparta Prague1:1
Drawvs Molde2:2
Lossvs Viking0:3
Lossvs Torreense1:2

: 1.20
: 1.60
: 60%
: 60%

Real Sociedad10 pts

Winvs Málaga5:2
Drawvs Union St.-Gilloise1:1
Winvs Deportivo3:2
Winvs Valencia3:2
Lossvs Bournemouth1:2

: 2.60
: 1.80
: 80%
: 100%

Key factLillestrøm won 2:0 at Sandefjord on Sunday, after 1:1 at Sparta Prague in the Europa League, 2:2 at home to Molde, 0:3 at Viking and a 1:2 home defeat to Torreense on matchday one. Over ten games they are 4-3-3 with 13 goals for and 14 against, both teams scored in six of those ten, and they sit sixth in the Eliteserien (Eurosport). Real Sociedad won 5:2 at Málaga on Sunday, their third league win in a row after 3:2 against Deportivo and 3:2 at Valencia; in Europe they drew 1:1 at Union Saint-Gilloise and lost 1:2 at home to Bournemouth. Over ten games they are 5-2-3 with 19 goals for and 19 against, and both teams scored in eight of the ten. In LaLiga they create 1.47 expected goals a game and allow 1.90, and their 16 points are 5.6 more than their chances were worth (Understat). Both clubs play again on Sunday: Lillestrøm at home to Brann, Real Sociedad at home to Levante.

No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad team news

Lillestrøm without Garnås and Jebara; Real Sociedad miss Odriozola and Aramburu.

Lillestrøm

OutEspen GarnåsKnee injury
OutCamil JebaraGroin problem

Real Sociedad

OutÁlvaro OdriozolaCruciate ligament injury
OutJon AramburuMuscle injury
DoubtYangel HerreraCalf problem
DoubtLuken BeitiaTraining apart from the group

TacticsHans Erik Ødegaard's Lillestrøm are without Espen Garnås (knee) and Camil Jebara (groin), according to Eurosport and Statz. Eurosport expects a 4-3-3: Dahlberg; Ranger, Gabrielsen, Kristiansen, Paintsil; Ottosson, Ibrahimaj, Nyheim; Bassi, Gulbrandsen, Vá. Lehne Olsen has scored three of Lillestrøm's four European goals this season, qualifying included (Eurosport). Real Sociedad are missing Álvaro Odriozola (cruciate ligament) and Jon Aramburu (muscle injury), while Yangel Herrera has a calf problem and Luken Beitia has been training apart from the group; these four come from one source, Eurosport. The expected Real Sociedad side is a 4-4-2: Marrero; Zubeldia, Martín, Sarr, Gómez; Ochieng, Gorrotxategi, Turrientes, Guedes; Sučić, Oyarzabal. Official line-ups come an hour before kick-off.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3

Who do others back in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?

All three previews with a score have both sides scoring.

Source	Pick
Eurosport	Lillestrøm 1:2 Real Sociedad
Sportskeeda	Lillestrøm 1:2 Real Sociedad
Statz	Lillestrøm 1:1 Real Sociedad

Our positionWe share Eurosport's and Sportskeeda's 1:2. Sportytrader also tips both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, so all four previews we read expect goals at both ends.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad predicted score

Real Sociedad score more, Lillestrøm still find one.

Real Sociedad should have the better of the ball and the better chances: they are the stronger side and have scored three or more in three of their last five games. But their defence gives chances away, 1.90 expected goals a game against them in LaLiga, and Lillestrøm at home in Europe have to come forward with Lehne Olsen and the front three. 1:2 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative. Both teams to score comes in with 1:2, 1:1, 2:1, 2:2 or any score where both sides score; 0:1, 0:2, 1:0 or any clean sheet loses it.

Predicted score: 1:2
Alternative: 1:1

Your score

LSK1

RSO2

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad pick: Both teams to score

Both teams to score: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Real Sociedad score this autumn, but they also concede often: both teams scored in eight of their last ten games, and their defence allows almost two expected goals a game in LaLiga. Lillestrøm will not sit back at home in Europe, and every league-phase game of both clubs so far has had goals at both ends. All four previews we read expect both sides to score. We keep it as analysis because Lillestrøm's record of three clean sheets and two blanks in ten leaves room for a game with one side scoring.

Our probability56–60%

Our pickBoth teams to score

Odds1.72

Main scenario1:2

Wins with: 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
Loses with: 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…

Our scenario: 1:2alternative 1:1

What would change our mind If Lillestrøm start without two of their first-choice forwards, we would expect Real Sociedad to keep a clean sheet.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Lillestrøm win	5.96	16.8%
Draw	4.60	21.7%
Real Sociedad win	1.47	68%
Real Sociedad or draw	1.11	90.1%
Over 2.5 goals	1.59	62.9%
Under 2.5 goals	2.36	42.4%
Both teams to score	1.72	58.1%
Both teams not to score	2.05	48.8%

Odds snapshot 22 OCT 06:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why one side could keep a clean sheet.

Lillestrøm kept three clean sheets and failed to score twice in their last ten games.
Real Sociedad could kill the game after an early goal and keep the ball.
Lillestrøm are without Garnås and Jebara.
Real Sociedad's points run ahead of their chances, which says their finishing has been hot and may cool.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: both teams to score · analysis only. We expect 1:2, but Lillestrøm's two blanks in ten games leave us not sure enough to bet on it.

Market: Both teams to score
Odds: 1.72
Published: 22 OCT 07:31

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

07:31Analysis published · no bet

No. 12 · After the match

After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.

FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

LillestrømvsReal Sociedad prediction