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Football · Europe · Europa League · League phase, matchday 2 · Leuven

Union SGvsReal Sociedad Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad · prediction

Score
1:1
Date
15 OCT
City
Leuven
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Union SG vs Real Sociedad?

Our Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction is Union or a draw, most likely 2:2 at Den Dreef in Leuven. David Hubert's Union St.-Gilloise are unbeaten in eight games, fourth in Belgium with 20 points from eight rounds, and won 3:0 in Plzeň on matchday 1. Pellegrino Matarazzo's Real Sociedad are sixth in LaLiga with 13 points, but they lost 1:2 at home to Bournemouth in their opener and concede plenty. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 2:1
2:2
Our estimate
64–69%
Union SG or draw · odds 1.46Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Union SG or draw
Price now
1.46

Union SG vs Real Sociedad at a glance

MatchUnion St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
CompetitionUEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 2
Kick-off15 OCT · 17:45 UK · 18:45 Leuven
VenueKing Power at Den Dreef, Leuven
Our pickUnion SG or draw · 1.46 · analysis only
Our estimate64–69%
Predicted score2:2
Main reasonWe expect Union to avoid defeat.
No. 04 · Form

Union SG vs Real Sociedad: recent form

Union SG 13 from 15. Real Sociedad 9 from 15.

Union SG13 pts
  • Drawvs OH Leuven1:1
  • Winvs Royal Antwerp2:0
  • Winvs Viktoria Plzeň3:0
  • Winvs Lommel5:0
  • Winvs Charleroi3:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Real Sociedad9 pts
  • Winvs Deportivo La Coruña3:2
  • Winvs Valencia3:2
  • Lossvs Bournemouth1:2
  • Lossvs Atlético Madrid0:3
  • Winvs Elche3:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factUnion are 7-2-1 over their last ten games, 27 goals scored and 7 conceded, with six clean sheets; they drew 1:1 with OH Leuven on Sunday after 2:0 at Antwerp, 3:0 in Plzeň, 5:0 against Lommel and 3:2 at Charleroi. Over ten games they took 18 shots a game against 13 and 67% of the shots on target. Real Sociedad beat Deportivo La Coruña 3:2 on Sunday and won 3:2 in Valencia, after 1:2 against Bournemouth and 0:3 against Atlético Madrid. Over ten games they are 4-2-4, 14:18, with one clean sheet, and Understat has them on 1.89 expected goals against per league game and 4.4 points above their expected points.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Union SG vs Real Sociedad team news

Union have a long absence list; Real Sociedad miss two full-backs.

Union SG
  • OutKevin Mac AllisterInjured
  • OutRaul FloruczSuspended
  • OutAdem ZorganeSources differ: injured or suspended
  • OutRoss SykesReported injured, not confirmed
  • OutRob SchoofsReported injured, not confirmed
  • OutKevin RodriguesReported injured, not confirmed
  • OutIlan HurteventReported injured, not confirmed
  • DoubtOndřej KričfalušiSources differ
Real Sociedad
  • OutÁlvaro OdriozolaReported injured, not confirmed
  • OutJon AramburuReported injured, not confirmed
TacticsCaptain Kevin Mac Allister is out with a cruciate ligament injury, and Raul Florucz is suspended (Sports Mole and Flashscore). Sports Mole also lists Ross Sykes, Rob Schoofs, Kevin Rodrigues and Ilan Hurtevent as injured; we could not confirm that list with a second source. Adem Zorgane is out, injured according to Sports Mole and suspended according to Flashscore, and Ondřej Kričfaluši is on the Sports Mole injury list but also in its probable XI. Sports Mole expects Koffi in goal and Mofokeng with Biondic up front for Union. For Real Sociedad it lists Álvaro Odriozola and Jon Aramburu as injured and expects Oyarzabal, Guedes and Barrenetxea in attack. No line-up had been confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 2

Who do others back in Union SG vs Real Sociedad?

The previews expect goals at both ends and a close game.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports Mole2:2Same side
Kickoff.co.ukExpected goals 1.7 to 1.4 for UnionSame side
Our positionWe agree with both: Union are slightly the better side on current form and Real Sociedad will score. Sports Mole's 2:2 is our main score too, and neither preview has the visitors winning.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Union SG vs Real Sociedad predicted score

Union push from the start; Real Sociedad answer with Oyarzabal.

Union put 7.6 shots on target a game against 3.7 conceded over ten games, and Flashscore notes they have scored after the break in each of their last seven games. Real Sociedad allow 6.1 shots on target a game, but they score too: both teams scored in each of their last seven Europa League away games (Flashscore). Union also have a full week before their next game, while Real Sociedad travel to Málaga on Sunday. 2:2 is our main score; 2:1 to Union is the alternative. Union or draw wins with any draw or Union win and loses only if Real Sociedad win, 1:2 or 2:3 included.

Predicted score
2:2
Alternative
2:1
Your score
USG2
RSO2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Union SG vs Real Sociedad pick: Union SG or draw

Union SG or draw: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We expect Union to avoid defeat. They are unbeaten in eight, have the better shot numbers over ten games, and Flashscore has them unbeaten in their last 19 home games. Real Sociedad concede too much to be trusted away, with three defeats in their last four Europa League trips and no win ever against a Belgian club in Europe. The absences in Union's defence point to goals at both ends, so our main score is 2:2, and 2:1 is the alternative; both hold for Union or draw.

Our probability64–69%
Our pickUnion SG or draw
Odds1.46
Main scenario2:2
Our scenario
2:2alternative 2:1

What would change our mind A Union line-up without both Kričfaluši and Sykes next to the missing Mac Allister, leaving reserves across the back line: then a Real Sociedad win becomes too likely for this pick.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Union SG win2.4740.5%
Draw3.5927.9%
Real Sociedad win2.6437.9%
Union SG or draw1.4668.5%
Real Sociedad or draw1.5265.8%

Odds snapshot 15 OCT 06:22 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why Real Sociedad could win.

  1. Union are without at least three regulars, including captain and centre-back Mac Allister, and the full injury list is not confirmed by a second source.
  2. Real Sociedad have won their last two games, scoring three goals in each.
  3. Only one preview, Sports Mole, gives line-ups; the absences could hurt Union more than the form table shows.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Union or draw · analysis only. We expect 2:2, but Union's absence list is long and only one preview gives line-ups, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Union SG or draw
Odds
1.46
Published
15 OCT 07:45
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:2Union SG or draw at 1.46
Happened
1:1Draw

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.