Sarri calls the calendar absurd after Raspadori limps off. Milan are next
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Football · Europe · Europa League · League phase, matchday 2 · Salzburg
SalzburgvsMilan RB Salzburg vs AC Milan · prediction
Score
0:4
Date
15 OCT
City
Salzburg
Status
Full time
SAL0:4MILFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Salzburg vs Milan?
Our Salzburg vs Milan prediction is Salzburg or a draw, most likely 1:1 at the Red Bull Arena. Danny Röhl's RB Salzburg have gone 15 competitive games without defeat, 11 wins and four draws (Sports Mole), and won 1:0 at Levski Sofia on matchday 1. AC Milan are the away favourites at 2.00, but they have won only one of their last five games and lost 0:2 at home to Benfica in their Europa League opener. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 55–60%
- Market
- Salzburg or draw
- Price now
- 1.77
Salzburg vs Milan at a glance
| Match | RB Salzburg vs AC Milan |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Europa League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 15 OCT · 17:45 UK · 18:45 Salzburg |
| Venue | Red Bull Arena, Salzburg |
| Our pick | Salzburg or draw · 1.77 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 55–60% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | We expect Salzburg to avoid defeat at home. |
No. 04 · Form
Salzburg vs Milan: recent form
Salzburg 11 from 15. Milan 6 from 15.
Salzburg11 pts
- Drawvs Grazer AK0:0
- Winvs Sturm Graz3:0
- Winvs Levski Sofia1:0
- Drawvs SV Ried1:1
- Winvs Rapid Vienna5:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Milan6 pts
- Drawvs Sassuolo1:1
- Winvs Lecce3:0
- Lossvs Benfica0:2
- Drawvs Lazio2:2
- Drawvs Juventus1:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factSalzburg are 7-3-0 over their last ten games with 24 goals scored and 6 conceded, and kept six clean sheets; they beat Sturm Graz 3:0 and Rapid Vienna 5:1 before Saturday's 0:0 at Grazer AK. Over those ten games they took 17.1 shots a game against 11.4 and 69% of the shots on target. Milan drew 1:1 at Sassuolo on Sunday, beat Lecce 3:0, lost 0:2 to Benfica and drew 2:2 at Lazio and 1:1 at Juventus: one win in five. They are fifth in Serie A with 12 points from six games and unbeaten in the league (Sports Mole).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Salzburg vs Milan team news
Milan without Gabbia and Saelemaekers; Salzburg rotated seven places on Saturday.
Salzburg
- OutSoumaïla DiabatéInjured
- DoubtChristian ZawieschitzkyAdductor problem, missed the last league game
Milan
- OutMatteo GabbiaThigh injury
- OutAlexis SaelemaekersUnavailable
TacticsSports Mole lists Matteo Gabbia out with a thigh injury that could keep him out for months and Alexis Saelemaekers unavailable; another preview gives Gabbia's injury as an ankle problem, so we only say he is out. Its probable Milan XI is a back three of Tomori, De Winter and Pavlović, with Modrić and Musah in midfield, Pulisic behind the front line and Ramos up front. Salzburg's injury list differs between previews; Soumaïla Diabaté is the one name on both. Röhl changed seven starters for the 0:0 at Grazer AK on Saturday (Salzburg24), so his first team is rested, and goalkeeper Christian Zawieschitzky missed that game with an adductor problem. No line-up had been confirmed when we published.
In the news
Report: Milan are unbeaten, and Cardinale still left Sassuolo angry with Amorim
Our take Amorim survives until winter at least
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Salzburg vs Milan?
Two of three previews back Milan; Sports Mole calls a draw.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | 1:1 | Same side |
| Squawka | Milan 2:0 | Other side |
| Khel Now | Milan 2:0 | Other side |
Our positionWe go against the majority. Milan have the bigger names, but one win in five and a home defeat in matchday 1 do not make an away favourite at 2.00 we trust, and Salzburg have not lost in 15 games. We side with Sports Mole on the draw.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Salzburg vs Milan predicted score
Milan have the ball; Salzburg press and hit on the break at home.
Röhl's side press high and shoot often: 7.7 shots on target a game over ten games against 3.4 conceded. Milan average 4.9 on target and allow 4.2, a far smaller gap than their price suggests. With both teams back in their leagues on Sunday, Salzburg at home to Altach and Milan at home to Atalanta, we expect a tight game. 1:1 is our main score; 2:1 to Salzburg is the alternative if their first team, rested on Saturday, starts fast. Salzburg or draw wins with 0:0, 1:1, 2:2 or any Salzburg win and loses with any Milan win, including 1:2 and 0:1.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 2:1
Your score
SAL
MIL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Salzburg vs Milan pick: Salzburg or draw
Salzburg or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect Salzburg to avoid defeat at home. They have not lost in 15 games and put more than twice as many shots on target as their opponents over ten games, while Milan have won once in five and lost at home in their Europa League opener. Milan are without Gabbia and Saelemaekers and play Atalanta on Sunday. Our scores, 1:1 and 2:1, both hold for Salzburg or draw.
Our probability55–60%
Our pickSalzburg or draw
Odds1.77
Main scenario1:1
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 2:1
What would change our mind A full-strength Milan XI with an early goal, or a Salzburg side that rotates again before Altach: then a Milan win becomes our main scenario.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Salzburg win | 3.42 | 29.2% |
| Draw | 3.68 | 27.2% |
| Milan win | 2.00 | 50% |
| Salzburg or draw | 1.77 | 56.5% |
| Milan or draw | 1.30 | 76.9% |
Odds snapshot 15 OCT 06:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Milan could win.
- Milan's squad is far stronger on paper, and two of the three previews we read, Squawka and Khel Now, expect a 2:0 Milan win.
- The prices give Salzburg only about 27% to win and Milan 47%; a single Milan goal from Pulisic or Modrić's passing settles a tight game.
- Salzburg drew 0:0 at Grazer AK on Saturday, and Röhl said they were not good enough; their sharpness after the international break is not proven.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Salzburg or draw · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but Milan's squad is stronger, the injury lists differ between sources and no line-up was confirmed, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Salzburg or draw at 1.77
- Happened
- 0:4Milan win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.