Flick benched Rodri for the Clásico. Barcelona conceded twice in five minutes in Paris
Our take Rodri was not what Barcelona missed in Paris
Football · Spain · LaLiga · Matchday 9 · Seville
BetisvsBarcelona Real Betis vs Barcelona · prediction
Score
2:5
Date
17 OCT
City
Seville
Status
Full time
BET2:5BARFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Betis vs Barcelona?
Our Real Betis vs Barcelona prediction is a Barcelona win in a game with goals at both ends, most likely 1:2 at Estadio La Cartuja on Saturday (18:30 in Seville, 17:30 UK). Hansi Flick's Barcelona top LaLiga with 24 points from 8 games and have won their last ten in all competitions, scoring 43 and conceding 9. Manuel Pellegrini's Betis are third on 19 points and have lost once in their last ten. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:3
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 66–70%
- Market
- Barcelona win
- Price now
- 1.42
Betis vs Barcelona at a glance
| Match | Real Betis vs Barcelona |
|---|---|
| Competition | LaLiga · Matchday 9 |
| Kick-off | 17 OCT · 17:30 UK · 18:30 Seville |
| Venue | Estadio La Cartuja, Seville |
| Our pick | Barcelona win · 1.42 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 66–70% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | Barcelona have not dropped a point this season and create more than four expected goals a game, twice as many as Betis allow. |
No. 04 · Form
Betis vs Barcelona: recent form
Betis 13 from 15. Barcelona 15 from 15.
Betis13 pts
- Winvs Porto3:2
- Winvs Osasuna5:2
- Drawvs Deportivo La Coruña1:1
- Winvs Getafe1:0
- Winvs Villarreal2:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Barcelona15 pts
- Winvs Galatasaray4:1
- Winvs Getafe3:0
- Winvs Sevilla3:1
- Winvs Racing Santander7:2
- Winvs Levante4:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 4.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factBarcelona are 8-0-0 in LaLiga with 34 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their last five: 4:1 at Galatasaray, 3:0 against Getafe, 3:1 at Sevilla, 7:2 against Racing Santander and 4:2 at Levante. Betis are 6-1-1 in the league and unbeaten in five: 3:2 against Porto, 5:2 against Osasuna, 1:1 at Deportivo La Coruña, 1:0 against Getafe and 2:1 at Villarreal. Understat has Barcelona creating 4.04 expected goals a game and allowing 0.99; Betis sit at 1.98 and 1.74, and their 19 points are 6.8 more than their chances suggest. Over the last ten games Barcelona put 8.6 shots a game on target and allowed 2.8; Betis 6.4 and 5.3.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Betis vs Barcelona team news
Betis without Firpo and Ruibal; Raphinha and De Jong back in Barcelona's squad.
Betis
- OutJunior FirpoGroin injury
- OutAitor RuibalKnee injury
Barcelona
- OutAndreas ChristensenThigh injury
- OutRoony BardghjiKnee injury
- DoubtRaphinhaBack in training, likely on the bench
- DoubtFrenkie de JongBack in training, likely on the bench
TacticsSports Mole reports that Betis are without Junior Firpo (groin) and Aitor Ruibal (knee), with Cucho Hernández expected back up front and Antony possibly on the bench. Barcelona are missing Andreas Christensen (thigh) and Roony Bardghji (knee); Raphinha and Frenkie de Jong have returned to training and are more likely to come off the bench than start. Both clubs played in the Champions League in midweek: Betis beat Porto 3:2 at home on Wednesday, three days before this game, and Barcelona won 4:1 in Istanbul against Galatasaray on Tuesday. Both play in Europe again next week, Barcelona at Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday and Betis at home to Feyenoord on Wednesday, so some rotation is possible on both sides. No line-up had been confirmed when we published.
In the news
Pellegrini blamed Lamine Yamal. Hours later, Bernal blamed himself
Our take Barça would have won this 11 v 11
PSG have missed 9 of their last 19 penalties. Barcelona come on Tuesday
Our take PSG need one name, not nine
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Betis vs Barcelona?
The previews we read expect a Barcelona win with goals.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Real Betis 1:2 Barcelona | Same side |
| Dimers model | Barcelona 62.1%, over 2.5 goals 70% | Same side |
Our positionSports Mole predicts 1:2 to Barcelona and the Dimers model gives Barcelona 62.1% with a 70% chance of three goals or more. We agree with both: Barcelona win, and Betis score.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Betis vs Barcelona predicted score
Barcelona's attack against a Betis side that scores at home.
Barcelona scored three or more in each of their last five games, and nine of their last ten went over 2.5 goals. Betis concede 5.3 shots on target a game, so Flick's attack should find chances even with rotation before Paris. Betis score too: they found the net in each of their last ten games and won all three home games in their last five. 1:2 is our main score; 1:3 is the alternative if Barcelona pull away after the break. Barcelona to win holds with 1:2, 1:3, 0:2 or 0:3 and loses with a draw or a Betis win. Our expected score also clears over 2.5 goals, the second half of our reading.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 1:3
Your score
BET
BAR
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Betis vs Barcelona pick: Barcelona win
Barcelona win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Barcelona have not dropped a point this season and create more than four expected goals a game, twice as many as Betis allow. Betis score at home, so we do not expect a clean sheet: our main score is 1:2. A Barcelona win holds with that score and with our alternative 1:3, and both clear 2.5 goals. We publish it as analysis because a Barcelona win at 1.42 rests on one side, and a rotated Barcelona three days before Paris is the risk we cannot measure before the line-ups.
Our probability66–70%
Our pickBarcelona win
Odds1.42
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 1:3
What would change our mind Barcelona starting without both Pedri and Lamine Yamal: then a draw becomes a real scenario and we would not pick a winner.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Betis win | 5.84 | 17.1% |
| Draw | 5.61 | 17.8% |
| Barcelona win | 1.42 | 70.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.23 | 81.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.03 | 24.8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 73.5% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.97 | 33.7% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 08:11 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Betis could take points.
- Betis have won five and drawn one of their last six games in all competitions and have lost only once in ten.
- Barcelona play Paris Saint-Germain three days later; if Flick rests Pedri and Lamine Yamal together, the gap closes.
- Betis's 19 points are 6.8 more than their chances suggest, but their attack is real: 14 goals in 8 league games.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Barcelona to win, with over 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:2, but rotation before Paris Saint-Germain could change the line-up, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Barcelona win at 1.42
- Happened
- 2:5Barcelona win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.