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Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 7 · Newcastle upon Tyne
NewcastlevsAston Villa Newcastle United vs Aston Villa · prediction
Score
0:1
Date
17 OCT
City
Newcastle upon Tyne
Status
Full time
NEW0:1AVLFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction is both teams to score, most likely a 1:1 draw at St James' Park on Saturday at 17:30 UK. Both teams scored in seven of Newcastle's last ten games and six of Villa's, and each side kept only two clean sheets in that run. Matthias Jaissle's Newcastle are 11th on 8 points after a 1:4 defeat at Coventry; Unai Emery's Villa are 16th on 5 points but beat Fenerbahçe 6:0 in the Champions League on Wednesday. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 64–68%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.50
Newcastle vs Aston Villa at a glance
| Match | Newcastle United vs Aston Villa |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League · Matchday 7 |
| Kick-off | 17 OCT · 17:30 UK · 17:30 Newcastle upon Tyne |
| Venue | St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.50 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 64–68% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | Both defences concede almost every week: Newcastle allow 1.83 expected goals a game and Villa 2.02, and each kept only two clean sheets in ten. |
No. 04 · Form
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: recent form
Newcastle 7 from 15. Aston Villa 10 from 15.
Newcastle7 pts
- Lossvs Coventry City1:4
- Winvs Hull City2:1
- Lossvs Leeds United1:4
- Winvs Millwall1:0
- Drawvs Bournemouth2:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Aston Villa10 pts
- Winvs Fenerbahçe6:0
- Drawvs Brentford2:2
- Winvs Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- Winvs Coventry City3:1
- Lossvs Nottingham Forest1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factNewcastle have 8 points from six league games, with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their last five: 1:4 at Coventry, 2:1 against Hull City, 1:4 at Leeds, 1:0 at Millwall in the cup and 2:2 with Bournemouth. Villa have 5 points and 6 goals from six league games, but won 6:0 against Fenerbahçe, drew 2:2 with Brentford, won 3:2 at Tottenham and 3:1 at Coventry in the cup, and lost 1:2 to Nottingham Forest. Understat has Newcastle allowing 1.83 expected goals a game and Villa 2.02. Over the last ten games, Newcastle failed to score once and Villa three times.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Newcastle vs Aston Villa team news
Newcastle without Elanga and Ramsey; Villa without Onana and Ruggeri.
Newcastle
- OutAnthony ElangaThigh injury
- OutJacob RamseyThigh injury
- OutTino LivramentoUndisclosed
- DoubtBazoumana TraoreKnee knock
Aston Villa
- OutAmadou OnanaKnee injury
- OutMatteo RuggeriThigh injury
- DoubtLeon GoretzkaUnlikely to start
- OutIan MaatsenAnkle injury
TacticsSports Mole and footballpredictions.com both report Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey out for Newcastle, and Amadou Onana and Matteo Ruggeri out for Villa. Sports Mole adds Tino Livramento and Ewen Jaouen to Newcastle's absentees and lists Bazoumana Traore as a doubt with a knee knock from Coventry; for Villa it has Ian Maatsen out with an ankle problem and Leon Goretzka unlikely to start, while footballpredictions.com calls Goretzka unavailable. Both previews have Joelinton available for Newcastle. Villa come in on three days' rest after Wednesday's Champions League game and host Viking FK next Wednesday; Newcastle have had five days since Coventry and do not play again until 25 October at Crystal Palace. No line-up had been confirmed when we published.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Both previews we read expect goals at both ends.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Newcastle 1:1 Aston Villa |
| footballpredictions.com | 2:2, both teams to score |
Our positionSports Mole expects 1:1 and footballpredictions.com 2:2 with both teams to score. We agree on the shape of the game: a draw with goals, and no side we trust to keep a clean sheet.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Newcastle vs Aston Villa predicted score
Two leaky defences and an open game.
Neither defence holds up: Newcastle conceded four twice in their last five games, and Villa allow more than two expected goals a game in the league. Newcastle at home should create enough to score, and Villa arrive with confidence after six goals against Fenerbahçe, even if three days of rest may cost them legs late on. 1:1 is our main score; 2:1 to Newcastle is the alternative if the home side take control after the break. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 2:1, 1:2 or 2:2 and loses with 1:0, 2:0, 0:1 or 0:0.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 2:1
Your score
NEW
AVL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Newcastle vs Aston Villa pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Both defences concede almost every week: Newcastle allow 1.83 expected goals a game and Villa 2.02, and each kept only two clean sheets in ten. Both teams scored in seven of Newcastle's last ten and six of Villa's, and both previews we read expect it again. Our main score is 1:1 and the alternative 2:1, so both scenarios win the pick. We keep it as analysis because Villa's attack has been hit and miss, with three blanks in ten.
Our probability64–68%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.50
Main scenario1:1
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 2:1
What would change our mind A Villa line-up rotated with the Champions League in mind, without its first-choice striker: then a 1:0 to Newcastle becomes our main score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 2.24 | 44.6% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 27.4% |
| Aston Villa win | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.48 | 40.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.33 | 42.9% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 07:11 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side could keep a clean sheet.
- Villa failed to score in three of their last ten games and have only 6 goals in six league games.
- Newcastle put fewer shots on target than their opponents over the last ten games (46% of them), so their own goal is not certain.
- Villa's three days of rest and a Champions League game next week could mean a tired or rotated attack.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: both teams to score · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but Villa failed to score in three of their last ten, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Both teams to score at 1.50
- Happened
- 0:1Aston Villa win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.