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Football · Mexico · Liga MX · Matchday 13 · Pachuca

PachucavsCruz Azul prediction

Score
1:2
Date
21 OCT
City
Pachuca
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Our Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction is over 2.5 goals, most likely a 1:2 win for Cruz Azul at Estadio Hidalgo on Wednesday at 21:10 in Mexico City (04:10 UK on Thursday). Cruz Azul are fifth in the Apertura 2026 on 20 points and come in after a 5:0 win over FC Juárez. Pachuca are 16th on 13 points, have not won at home in this tournament and are missing four players, including the suspended Sergio Barreto. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 2:2
1:2
Our estimate
55–58%
Over 2.5 goals · odds 1.66Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Over 2.5 goals
Price now
1.66

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul at a glance

MatchPachuca vs Cruz Azul
CompetitionLiga MX Apertura 2026 · Matchday 13
Kick-off22 OCT · 04:10 UK · 21:10 Pachuca
VenueEstadio Hidalgo, Pachuca
Our pickOver 2.5 goals · 1.66 · analysis only
Our estimate55–58%
Predicted score1:2
Main reasonPachuca have not won at home in this tournament and play without Barreto and three injured players.
No. 04 · Form

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul: recent form

Pachuca 5 from 15. Cruz Azul 5 from 15.

Pachuca5 pts
  • Lossvs Monterrey1:2
  • Drawvs Necaxa3:3
  • Lossvs Santos0:1
  • Drawvs Tijuana2:2
  • Winvs Atlas3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Cruz Azul5 pts
  • Winvs FC Juárez5:0
  • Drawvs Pumas UNAM3:3
  • Drawvs Toluca3:3
  • Lossvs Monterrey0:1
  • Lossvs Inter Miami0:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factCruz Azul are 6-2-4 in the league with 27 goals for and 21 against (ESPN). Their last five: 5:0 against FC Juárez, 3:3 at Pumas UNAM, 3:3 with Toluca, 0:1 at Monterrey and 0:2 at Inter Miami in the cup. Pachuca are 3-4-5 with 19 scored and 16 conceded. Their last five: 1:2 at Monterrey, 3:3 with Necaxa, 0:1 at Santos, 2:2 with Tijuana and 3:0 at Atlas, so four of them had three goals or more. Over their last ten games Cruz Azul had more than 2.5 goals in six and Pachuca in five. Cruz Azul hit the target 6.6 times a game in that run and took 58% of the shots on target; Pachuca had exactly 50%. SI counts three Cruz Azul wins in the last five meetings and eight in the last fifteen, against five for Pachuca.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul team news

Pachuca without Barreto and three injured; Cruz Azul with doubts over Ditta and Paradela.

Pachuca
  • OutSergio BarretoSuspended, five yellow cards
  • OutRobert KenedyInjured
  • OutAlexei DomínguezInjured
  • OutAndrés ArroyoInjured
Cruz Azul
  • OutMateo LevySerious injury
  • OutAmaury MoralesSerious injury
  • OutCristian JiménezSerious injury
  • OutRalph OrquínFinal stage of recovery from injury
  • DoubtWiller DittaKnock, being assessed
  • DoubtJosé ParadelaStill recovering
TacticsSergio Barreto is suspended after his fifth yellow card, and Robert Kenedy, Alexei Domínguez and Andrés Arroyo are injured (Récord, SI). Francisco Venegas is available again after a ban, according to one preview. SI names Benjamín Mora as the Pachuca coach; we did not find a second source. Joel Huiqui's Cruz Azul are without Mateo Levy, Amaury Morales and Cristian Jiménez, all with serious injuries, and Ralph Orquín is in the last stage of his recovery (SI, Récord). Willer Ditta has a knock and is being assessed, and the staff are cautious with José Paradela. Huiqui said he expects the full squad only from the next round, against Querétaro. A predicted Pachuca side from the previews has Carlos Moreno in goal and Rodolfo Pizarro and Salomón Rondón up front, but we could not confirm it. It is a midweek round: Pachuca lost at Monterrey on Monday, Cruz Azul played on Sunday, and both are away in the league four days from now, Pachuca at América and Cruz Azul at Querétaro.

In the news

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

The one preview with a score expects an away win with three goals.

SourcePick
SIPachuca 1:2 Cruz Azul
Our positionWe have the same score as SI. The SI model gives Cruz Azul 39%, Pachuca 33% and the draw 28%, close to the prices, so the winner is far from certain. What both teams' recent games share is goals, and that is where we make our call.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul predicted score

An open game, Cruz Azul win it narrowly.

Cruz Azul create more, with 19.3 shots a game over their last ten, and Pachuca's back line is short of Barreto. Pachuca play openly at home, where their last two games ended 3:3 and 2:2, so we expect them to score too. 1:2 is our main score and 2:2, a fifth draw for Pachuca in ten games, is the alternative. Over 2.5 goals wins with 1:2, 2:1, 2:2, 3:1 or any score with three goals or more, and loses with 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:0 or 0:2.

Predicted score
1:2
Alternative
2:2
Your score
PAC1
CAZ2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Pachuca vs Cruz Azul pick: Over 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Pachuca have not won at home in this tournament and play without Barreto and three injured players. Cruz Azul just beat FC Juárez 5:0 and hit the target 6.6 times a game over their last ten, more than Pachuca. We expect an open game with three or four goals and a narrow away win. We keep it as analysis because Cruz Azul have won only one of their last five, and the prices see the winner as close to a coin toss.

Our probability55–58%
Our pickOver 2.5 goals
Odds1.66
Main scenario1:2
Wins with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Loses with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Our scenario
1:2alternative 2:2

What would change our mind If Cruz Azul start without both Paradela and Rotondi, we would expect 1:1 rather than 1:2.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Pachuca win2.8535.1%
Draw3.4628.9%
Cruz Azul win2.2344.8%
Pachuca or draw1.5664.1%
Cruz Azul or draw1.3673.5%
Over 2.5 goals1.6660.2%
Under 2.5 goals2.1446.7%
Both teams to score1.5464.9%
Both teams not to score2.3143.3%

Odds snapshot 20 OCT 22:38 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why it could stay under three goals.

  1. Cruz Azul failed to score in two of their last five games, both away: 0:1 at Monterrey and 0:2 at Inter Miami.
  2. Pachuca have conceded only 16 goals in 12 league games, 1.3 a game.
  3. With prices this close, 1:1 is the single most likely score, and it loses the pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: over 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:2, but Cruz Azul have won only one of their last five and Pachuca's defence is better than its results, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
1.66
Published
20 OCT 23:36
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:2Over 2.5 goals at 1.66
Happened
1:2Cruz Azul win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.