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Football · France · Ligue 1 · Matchday 6 · Rennes

RennesvsAuxerre Stade Rennais FC vs AJ Auxerre · prediction

Score
4:1
Date
11 OCT
City
Rennes
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win Rennes vs Auxerre?

Stade Rennais host AJ Auxerre at Roazhon Park on Sunday, after a 0:4 defeat at Lyon before the break. Auxerre are without three players: Bryan Okoh and Assane Diousse have torn cruciate ligaments and Christ Makosso is suspended. We back a Rennes home win, most likely 2:1.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:1
Our estimate
63–68%
Rennes win · odds 1.44Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Rennes win
Price now
1.44

Rennes vs Auxerre at a glance

MatchStade Rennais FC vs AJ Auxerre
CompetitionLigue 1 · Matchday 6
Kick-off11 OCT · 16:15 UK · 17:15 Rennes
VenueRoazhon Park, Rennes
Our pickRennes win · 1.44 · bet
Our estimate63–68%
Predicted score2:1
Main reasonWe think Auxerre arrive weakened: Okoh and Diousse are out with torn cruciate ligaments and Makosso is suspended.
No. 04 · Form

Rennes vs Auxerre: recent form

Rennes 10 from 15. Auxerre 6 from 15.

Rennes10 pts
  • Lossvs Lyon0:4
  • Drawvs Sturm Graz0:0
  • Winvs Marseille1:0
  • Winvs Angers2:1
  • Winvs Le Mans3:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Auxerre6 pts
  • Winvs Brest2:1
  • Winvs Nice1:0
  • Lossvs Lyon1:3
  • Lossvs Angers1:3
  • Lossvs Lens2:5
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factRennes are sixth on ten points from five games and unbeaten at home: 1:0 against Marseille, 3:2 against Le Mans and 2:2 against PSG. Auxerre are 14th on six points. They won their last two, 1:0 against Nice and 2:1 against Brest, both at home, and lost both away games, 2:5 at Lens and 1:3 at Lyon.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Rennes vs Auxerre team news

Auxerre without Okoh, Diousse and Makosso; Cissé a late call for Rennes.

Rennes
  • DoubtDjaoui CisséGroin strain
Auxerre
  • OutBryan OkohCruciate ligament tear
  • OutAssane DiousseCruciate ligament tear
  • OutChrist MakossoSuspended
  • DoubtMarvin SenayaHamstring injury
TacticsFranck Haise has one doubt: Djaoui Cissé, who has a groin strain and will be assessed before the game; Esteban Lepaul is fit to lead the line. Will Still’s Auxerre are without Bryan Okoh and Assane Diousse, both recovering from cruciate ligament tears, and the suspended Christ Makosso, while Marvin Senaya is doubtful with a hamstring problem.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Rennes vs Auxerre?

Both previews we read expect a Rennes win.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleRennes 2:0Same side
Kickoff.co.ukRennes win, 68%Same side
Our positionWe agree on the winner. Auxerre have scored in all five league games, so we expect 2:1 rather than 2:0.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Rennes vs Auxerre predicted score

Rennes push, Auxerre counter.

Rennes took 19 shots a game over their last five and should press a weakened Auxerre side back. 2:1 is our main score. 1:1 is the risk: Will Still’s side score on the break and then hold on, as they did against Nice. A draw or an Auxerre win beats us.

Predicted score
2:1
Alternative
1:1
Your score
REN2
AUX1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Rennes vs Auxerre pick: Rennes win

Rennes win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Auxerre arrive weakened: Okoh and Diousse are out with torn cruciate ligaments and Makosso is suspended. Rennes are unbeaten at home this season, with wins over Marseille and Le Mans and a 2:2 against PSG. After the 0:4 at Lyon, Haise will want a reaction in front of his own fans. We expect 2:1.

Our probability63–68%
Our pickRennes win
Odds1.44
Main scenario2:1
Our scenario
2:1alternative 1:1

What would change our mind A team sheet without both Lepaul and Cissé, or a Rennes price drifting above 1.55 before kick-off.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Rennes win1.4469.4%
Draw4.5022.2%
Auxerre win7.0014.3%

Odds snapshot 11 OCT 08:15 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Over their last ten games Rennes allowed more shots on target than they had, and conceded 18 goals.
  2. The 0:4 at Lyon is still fresh.
  3. Auxerre won their last two league games, and Sports Mole notes they have taken points in five of their last six visits to Roazhon Park.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet Rennes win at 1.44, as a single. We need only a Rennes win.

Market
Rennes win
Odds
1.44
Published
11 OCT 08:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Rennes win at 1.44
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:1Bet at 1.44
Happened
4:1Rennes win
Won

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.