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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Calgary

CalgaryvsCarolina Calgary Flames vs Carolina Hurricanes · hockey prediction

Score
3:2
Date · UK
19 OCT
Local time
18:00 · 18 OCT
City
Calgary
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Calgary vs Carolina?

Our Flames vs Hurricanes prediction: Calgary +1.5 goals, with a main score of 2:3 to Carolina. The Carolina Hurricanes are 7-1-1 and have won five in a row, but they play the second night of a back-to-back after a 3:2 win in Winnipeg on Saturday and a 1,201 km flight. The Calgary Flames are 1-6-0 and have had three days of rest. We expect a Carolina win by one goal, so our pick is Calgary +1.5, as analysis only.

Predicted score · alt 1:4
2:3
Our estimate
57–61%
Calgary +1.5 · odds 1.70Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Calgary +1.5
Price now
1.70

Calgary vs Carolina at a glance

MatchCalgary Flames vs Carolina Hurricanes
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off19 OCT · 01:00 UK
VenueScotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Our pickCalgary +1.5 · 1.70 · analysis only
Our estimate57–61%
Predicted score2:3
Main reasonCarolina are the better team, but they play the second night of a back-to-back after a flight, against a rested home side.
No. 04 · Form

Calgary vs Carolina: recent form

Calgary 1-4 in their last 5. Carolina 5-0.

Calgary
Lost 2:6 in Vegas on Thu 15 Oct · three days of rest · 1,663 km flight home · first home game after the road trip
Carolina
Won 3:2 in Winnipeg on Sat 17 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 1,201 km flight to Calgary, one time zone west · second road game in a row
Calgary1-4
  • Lossvs Vegas2:6
  • Winvs Anaheim4:2
  • Lossvs Anaheim2:4
  • Lossvs Colorado3:7
  • Lossvs Seattle1:6
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
2.40
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
5.00
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
100%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Carolina5-0
  • Winvs Winnipeg3:2
  • Winvs Washington4:2
  • Winvs Philadelphia4:1
  • Winvs Chicago5:2
  • Winvs Vancouver7:2
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
4.60
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
1.80
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Key factCarolina have won five straight: 7:2 over Vancouver, 5:2 in Chicago, 4:1 in Philadelphia, 4:2 over Washington and 3:2 in Winnipeg. They outshoot opponents 32.8 to 21.7 a game and have killed 93.5% of penalties. Calgary have one win in seven and a goal difference of -3.00 a game: 1:6 in Seattle, 3:7 against Colorado, 2:4 against Anaheim, 4:2 in Anaheim and 2:6 in Vegas on Thursday. Their shots are level with opponents (29.4 to 28.7), so the scorelines are worse than the run of play.
Attack & defenceCGYCAR
Wins and losses.1-6-07-1-1
Points %14.3%83.3%
Goal difference per game-3.00+1.44
Goals scored per game, overtime included.2.003.78
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.5.002.33
Shots on goal per game.29.432.8
Shots against28.721.7
Special teamsCGYCAR
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.20.0%27.0%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.80.0%93.5%
Last seasonCGYCAR
Wins and losses.34-39-953-22-7
Points %47.0%68.9%
Goal difference per game-0.57+0.68
Shots on goal per game.28.132.2
Shots against29.923.9
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.16.2%24.9%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.80.4%80.5%

NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Calgary vs Carolina: starting goalies and team news

Carolina's goalie after a week out is the question.

CalgaryExpected
Dustin Wolf
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.834
Starts
5
SV% last season
.899
SV% 3 seasons
.901
NHL career starts
129
Daily Faceoff projection, not confirmed when checked on the morning of 18 Oct
CarolinaExpected
Brandon Bussi
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.871
Starts
4
SV% last season
.895
SV% 3 seasons
.893
NHL career starts
43
Expected per the Yahoo Sports game preview, not confirmed: Pyotr Kochetkov started in Winnipeg on Saturday, and Daily Faceoff listed Kochetkov, unconfirmed, on the morning of 18 Oct
Calgary
  • OutSamuel HonzekLower body, week-to-week
  • OutJonathan HuberdeauHip, injured reserve
Carolina
  • OutTaylor HallUpper body, week-to-week
  • OutSeth JarvisShoulder, injured reserve
  • OutJordan StaalInjured reserve
  • OutAlexander NikishinContract dispute, injured non-roster list
TacticsPyotr Kochetkov started Carolina's last three games, including Saturday in Winnipeg, so on rotation Brandon Bussi should start in Calgary; the Yahoo Sports game preview expects him to return after a week without a start. That is not confirmed: on Sunday morning Daily Faceoff listed Kochetkov, unconfirmed and without a source, and we found no injury report explaining why Bussi sat out. Either way the gap is small: Bussi has saved .893 over three seasons and Kochetkov .899. Dustin Wolf is the expected Calgary starter, also unconfirmed; he has saved only .834 in five starts this season after .899 last season. ESPN's NHL injury report lists Taylor Hall (upper body, week-to-week), Seth Jarvis (shoulder) and Jordan Staal as out for Carolina, and Samuel Honzek and Jonathan Huberdeau for Calgary.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Calgary vs Carolina?

The one model we found has Carolina winning, by just over a goal.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsCarolina 66.1%, projected 3.78 to 2.53Other side
Our positionDRatings agrees with the line that Carolina should win; its projected margin is 1.25 goals, right on the line of our pick. We expect less: Carolina are on their second night in a row with a flight and a goalie coming back from a week out, so we see a one-goal game. Calgary +1.5 wins with any Calgary win and with a Carolina win by one goal. Dimers had no prediction for this game when we checked.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Calgary vs Carolina predicted score

A tired favourite and a home side that badly needs a performance.

2:3 to Carolina is our main score: the better team wins, but on tired legs and without the margin they showed at home. Calgary come home after a long road trip with three days of rest, and their shot numbers say they are not as bad as 1-6. 1:4 to Carolina is the alternative if their attack and penalty kill take over early, as they did against Vancouver. Calgary +1.5 loses only to a Carolina win by two goals or more; a late empty-net goal that turns 3:2 into 4:2 is the main risk.

Predicted score
2:3
Alternative
1:4
Your score
CGY2
CAR3
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Calgary vs Carolina pick: Calgary +1.5

Calgary +1.5: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Carolina are the better team, but they play the second night of a back-to-back after a flight, against a rested home side. In our back-test, road favourites on the second night lose more often than the line expects, and +1.5 against them came in about two times in three. Calgary's start has been dreadful, though, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Our probability57–61%
Our pickCalgary +1.5
Odds1.70
Main scenario2:3
Wins with
3:24:23:12:14:35:2…
Loses with
2:41:30:2…
Our scenario
2:3alternative 1:4

What would change our mind Devin Cooley in the Calgary goal instead of Wolf would make us drop the +1.5 call.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Calgary win · incl. OT2.7436.5%
Carolina win · incl. OT1.4768%
Calgary win in 60 min3.7426.7%
Draw in 60 min4.4022.7%
Carolina win in 60 min1.7656.8%
Calgary +1.51.7058.8%
Over 5.5 goals1.6959.2%
Under 5.5 goals2.1646.3%

Odds snapshot 18 OCT 05:20 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why our pick could go wrong.

  1. Calgary have lost by four goals or more three times in seven games and Wolf has saved .834.
  2. Carolina outshoot opponents by more than ten a game: that is control, not luck.
  3. DRatings projects a 1.25-goal margin, which leaves little room for a one-goal game.
  4. A late empty-net goal turns a one-goal defeat into a two-goal defeat for this pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Calgary +1.5 at 1.70 · analysis only. We expect 2:3; Calgary's form this season is too poor for a bet, but the back-to-back points to a close game.

Market
Calgary +1.5
Odds
1.70
Published
18 OCT 06:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Calgary +1.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:3Calgary +1.5 at 1.70
Happened
3:2Calgary win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.