29 PIM in 8 games benched Zadorov. His agent agreed with a fan about Toronto
Our take Boston proved they can win without him
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Dallas
DallasvsBoston Dallas Stars vs Boston Bruins · hockey prediction
Score
3:2 OT
Date · UK
21 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 20 OCT
City
Dallas
Status
Full time
DAL3:2BOSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Dallas vs Boston?
Our Stars vs Bruins prediction: the Dallas Stars beat the Boston Bruins at the American Airlines Center, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 3:2. Boston arrive on a five-game winning run at the end of a four-game road trip; Dallas were the stronger team last season, with 68.3% of the points to Boston's 61.0%. Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman are the expected goalies, both unconfirmed. Our pick: Dallas to win · analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 3:1
- 3:2
- Our estimate
- 57–62%
- Market
- Dallas win · incl. OT
- Price now
- 1.58
Dallas vs Boston at a glance
| Match | Dallas Stars vs Boston Bruins |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 01:00 UK |
| Venue | American Airlines Center, Dallas |
| Our pick | Dallas win · incl. OT · 1.58 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 57–62% |
| Predicted score | 3:2 |
| Main reason | Dallas were the better team over 82 games last season, 68.3% of the points and +0.65 a game against Boston's 61.0% and +0.27, and this season they allow 1.63 goals a game. |
No. 04 · Form
Dallas vs Boston: recent form
Dallas 3-2 in their last 5. Boston 5-0.
- Dallas
- Won 4:0 in Chicago on Sat 17 Oct · three days of rest · 1,292 km trip home · first home game after two on the road
- Boston
- Won 4:1 in Los Angeles on Sat 17 Oct · three days of rest · 1,993 km flight, two time zones east · fourth road game in a row
Dallas3-2
- Winvs Chicago4:0
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Colorado3:2 SO
- Lossvs Colorado2:3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Pittsburgh1:2 SO
- Winvs Buffalo4:0
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 1.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 0%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Boston5-0
- Winvs Los Angeles4:1
- Winvs Anaheim4:2
- Winvs San Jose6:3
- Winvs Philadelphia5:1
- Winvs Utah6:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 5.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 1.60
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Key factBoston have won five in a row, all in regulation: 6:1 over Utah, 5:1 over Philadelphia, then 6:3 in San Jose, 4:2 in Anaheim and 4:1 in Los Angeles on the road. Dallas are 3-2 in their last five: 4:0 in Buffalo, a shootout defeat in Pittsburgh, 2:3 at home to Colorado, a shootout win in Denver the next night and 4:0 in Chicago on Saturday. Dallas allow 1.63 goals a game, the fewest of the two.
| Attack & defence | DAL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 4-3-1 | 7-2-0 |
| Points % | 56.3% | 77.8% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.88 | +1.67 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 2.50 | 3.78 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 1.63 | 2.11 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 25.5 | 25.4 |
| Shots against | 22.6 | 28.3 |
| Special teams | DAL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 15.0% | 25.0% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 89.3% | 81.3% |
| Last season | DAL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 50-20-12 | 45-27-10 |
| Points % | 68.3% | 61.0% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.65 | +0.27 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 25.3 | 27.0 |
| Shots against | 26.2 | 29.7 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 28.6% | 23.4% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 80.3% | 77.0% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Dallas vs Boston: starting goalies and team news
Oettinger against Swayman: both No. 1 goalies expected.
DallasExpected
Jake Oettinger- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .952
- Starts
- 6
- SV% last season
- .899
- SV% 3 seasons
- .906
- NHL career starts
- 302
BostonExpected
Jeremy Swayman- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .934
- Starts
- 7
- SV% last season
- .908
- SV% 3 seasons
- .902
- NHL career starts
- 244
Dallas
- OutMatt DucheneCore surgery, out about three months
- OutOskar BackBroken finger, out 4 to 6 weeks
- OutLuke KrysInjured reserve
- OutCameron HughesInjured reserve
Boston
- DoubtPavel ZachaUpper body, game-time decision
TacticsDaily Faceoff projects Jake Oettinger for Dallas and Jeremy Swayman for Boston, both unconfirmed when we checked at 04:50 UTC on 20 October. Both started their team's last game and both are in form: Oettinger has saved .952 in six starts, including a shutout in Chicago, and Swayman .934 in seven. Dallas are without Matt Duchene, out for about three months after core surgery, and Oskar Back, who broke a finger and misses 4 to 6 weeks, so their depth at centre is thinner; Luke Krys and Cameron Hughes are on injured reserve. Pavel Zacha is a game-time decision for Boston with an upper-body injury (Adam Pellerin of NESN). Injury news comes from ESPN's NHL injury report; we did not find a second source.
In the news
Report: Kings want Hellebuyck, but LA have one goal in each of their last four games
Our take A goalie won't fix four goals in four games
Hintz bloodied MacKinnon in his first NHL fight. Tonight they meet again in Denver
Our take Dallas need goals tonight, not revenge
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Dallas vs Boston?
The one model we found backs Dallas, in line with the market.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Dallas 60.2%, projected 3.34 to 2.30 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner. With the margin removed, the line gives Dallas about 60%, and DRatings has 60.2%. We have 57 to 62%: Boston's run is real, but they have given up more shots than they took this season, 28.3 against 25.4, and Swayman has carried them. Dallas allow only 22.6 shots a game and kill 89.3% of penalties. Dimers had not posted this game and we could not check MoneyPuck, so DRatings is the only outside model.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Dallas vs Boston predicted score
Two hot goalies, one tight game.
3:2 to Dallas is our main score: a closed game between two goalies in form, decided by one goal. Dallas keep shots down and kill penalties well, which takes away Boston's power play, 25.0% this season. 3:1 to Dallas is the alternative if Oettinger keeps his form. Boston's way to win is the one they have used all month: Swayman stops everything and Boston score on fewer shots. Any Dallas win makes our pick, overtime and the shootout included; any Boston win beats it.
- Predicted score
- 3:2
- Alternative
- 3:1
Your score
DAL
BOS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Dallas vs Boston pick: Dallas win · incl. OT
Dallas win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Dallas were the better team over 82 games last season, 68.3% of the points and +0.65 a game against Boston's 61.0% and +0.27, and this season they allow 1.63 goals a game. Boston's five straight wins came with fewer shots than their opponents, so we expect Dallas to edge a tight game at home. At about 60% for either model, both results are possible, so we are not sure enough to bet.
Our probability57–62%
Our pickDallas win · incl. OT
Odds1.58
Main scenario3:2
- Our scenario
- 3:2alternative 3:1
What would change our mind Casey DeSmith in the Dallas goal instead of Oettinger, or Zacha back and Boston's top line complete, would move this closer to a coin toss.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas win · incl. OT | 1.58 | 63.3% |
| Boston win · incl. OT | 2.39 | 41.8% |
| Dallas win in 60 min | 1.97 | 50.8% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.18 | 23.9% |
| Boston win in 60 min | 3.19 | 31.3% |
| Boston +1.5 | 1.55 | 64.5% |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.81 | 55.2% |
| Under 5.5 goals | 1.97 | 50.8% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Boston have won five in a row with a goal difference of +1.67 a game.
- Without Duchene and Back, Dallas are thinner down the middle.
- Dallas' power play has converted 15.0% this season after 28.6% last season.
- Neither starting goalie is confirmed before the morning skate.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Dallas win · incl. OT at 1.58 · analysis only. We expect 3:2; at about 60% the game is too open for a bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Dallas win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:2Dallas win · incl. OT at 1.58
- Happened
- 3:2Dallas win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.