29 PIM in 8 games benched Zadorov. His agent agreed with a fan about Toronto
Our take Boston proved they can win without him
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Los Angeles
Los AngelesvsBoston Los Angeles Kings vs Boston Bruins · hockey prediction
Score
1:4
Date · UK
18 OCT
Local time
18:00 · 17 OCT
City
Los Angeles
Status
Full time
LAK1:4BOSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Los Angeles vs Boston?
Our Kings vs Bruins prediction: Boston +1.5 goals, with a main score of 3:2 to Los Angeles. The Boston Bruins are 6-2-0 and won 4:2 in Anaheim on Friday; the Los Angeles Kings are 0-3-2 and still looking for a first win. The line makes Los Angeles favourites because Boston play the second night of a back-to-back, and Boston's starting goalie is not known yet. Our pick is Boston +1.5, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 3:2
- Our estimate
- 66–70%
- Market
- Boston +1.5
- Price now
- 1.43
Los Angeles vs Boston at a glance
| Match | Los Angeles Kings vs Boston Bruins |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 02:00 UK |
| Venue | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles |
| Our pick | Boston +1.5 · 1.43 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 66–70% |
| Predicted score | 3:2 |
| Main reason | Boston have won four in a row and are +1.50 goals a game; Los Angeles have scored 11 goals in five games. |
No. 04 · Form
Los Angeles vs Boston: recent form
Los Angeles 0-5 in their last 5. Boston 4-1.
- Los Angeles
- Lost 1:4 at home to Edmonton on Tue 13 Oct · four days of rest · no travel · second home game in a row
- Boston
- Won 4:2 in Anaheim on Fri 16 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 45 km to Los Angeles, same time zone · third road game in a row
Los Angeles0-5
- Lossvs Edmonton1:4
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Vegas1:2 OT
- Lossvs Florida1:2
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs San Jose4:5 OT
- Lossvs Colorado4:8
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 4.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Boston4-1
- Winvs Anaheim4:2
- Winvs San Jose6:3
- Winvs Philadelphia5:1
- Winvs Utah6:1
- Lossvs Ottawa1:4
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 4.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Key factLos Angeles have not won in five games: 4:8 in Colorado, 4:5 in overtime in San Jose, 1:2 at home to Florida, 1:2 in overtime in Vegas and 1:4 at home to Edmonton on Tuesday. Three of the five defeats were by one goal, and they still outshoot opponents 30.6 to 26.6. Boston are 6-2-0 and have won four straight since a 1:4 home loss to Ottawa: 6:1 over Utah, 5:1 over Philadelphia, 6:3 in San Jose and 4:2 in Anaheim.
| Attack & defence | LAK | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 0-3-2 | 6-2-0 |
| Points % | 20.0% | 75.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -2.00 | +1.50 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 2.20 | 3.75 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 4.20 | 2.25 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 30.6 | 25.6 |
| Shots against | 26.6 | 28.7 |
| Special teams | LAK | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 15.8% | 16.7% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 57.9% | 76.0% |
| Last season | LAK | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 35-27-20 | 45-27-10 |
| Points % | 54.9% | 61.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.27 | +0.27 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 28.0 | 27.0 |
| Shots against | 27.2 | 29.7 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 17.0% | 23.4% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 74.6% | 77.0% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Los Angeles vs Boston: starting goalies and team news
Boston's goalie is the open question: Swayman or DiPietro.
Los AngelesExpected
Anton Forsberg- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .853
- Starts
- 1
- SV% last season
- .910
- SV% 3 seasons
- .905
- NHL career starts
- 206
BostonExpected
Jeremy Swayman- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .930
- Starts
- 6
- SV% last season
- .908
- SV% 3 seasons
- .901
- NHL career starts
- 243
Los Angeles
- OutKevin FialaLower leg fracture, at least three weeks
- OutMats ZuccarelloInjured reserve
- OutAlex TurcotteInjured reserve
- OutJan JenikInjured non-roster list
- OutJakub DvorakUpper body, injured non-roster list
Boston
- DoubtPavel ZachaUndisclosed injury, day-to-day
TacticsMichael DiPietro started for Boston in Anaheim on Friday (confirmed by Adam Pellerin, via Daily Faceoff), so on rotation Jeremy Swayman should start the second game of the back-to-back. That is not confirmed: when we checked at 06:10 UTC on 17 October, Daily Faceoff still listed DiPietro, unconfirmed and without a source. The difference matters. Swayman has 243 NHL starts and has saved .930 in six this season; DiPietro has three NHL starts. Anton Forsberg is the expected Los Angeles starter, also unconfirmed: .905 over three seasons, level with Darcy Kuemper, who saved .571 against Edmonton on Tuesday. Los Angeles are without Kevin Fiala (lower leg fracture, at least three weeks, per the Kings' official site), Mats Zuccarello and Alex Turcotte; Boston list Pavel Zacha as day-to-day. Injury news comes from ESPN's NHL injury report on the morning of 17 October.
In the news
Report: Kings want Hellebuyck, but LA have one goal in each of their last four games
Our take A goalie won't fix four goals in four games
Report: Hellebuyck would accept LA as Kuemper sits at .847 for 0-3-2 Kings
Our take LA's goalie gap is worth seven goals
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Los Angeles vs Boston?
The one model we found has Los Angeles winning, by less than a goal on average.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Los Angeles 56.4%, projected 3.27 to 2.58 | Other side |
Our positionDRatings agrees with the line that Los Angeles are slight favourites, but its projected margin is 0.69 goals, which fits a one-goal game. That is why our pick is Boston +1.5 rather than a winner: it comes in with any Boston win and with a Los Angeles win by one goal. The Covers computer pick for this game was cut off when we checked.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Los Angeles vs Boston predicted score
A one-goal game decided by tired legs and the Boston goalie.
3:2 to Los Angeles is our main score: the Kings finally win at home, against a Boston side on its second night in a row. Los Angeles have lost three games by one goal and take more shots than they allow, while their penalty kill (57.9%) gives Boston's power play a way back into the game. 2:3 to Boston after overtime is the alternative if Swayman starts and keeps his .930 form. Boston +1.5 wins with any result except a Boston defeat by two goals or more; an empty-net goal late on can turn 3:2 into 4:2, and that is the main risk.
- Predicted score
- 3:2
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
LAK
BOS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Los Angeles vs Boston pick: Boston +1.5
Boston +1.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Boston have won four in a row and are +1.50 goals a game; Los Angeles have scored 11 goals in five games. The back-to-back is why the line favours the Kings, and we agree they can win, but by one goal. DRatings projects a margin of 0.69 goals. Boston +1.5 covers that scenario and any Boston win.
Our probability66–70%
Our pickBoston +1.5
Odds1.43
Main scenario3:2
- Wins with
- 3:22:14:32:31:22:4…
- Loses with
- 4:23:15:24:15:36:3…
- Our scenario
- 3:2alternative 2:3
What would change our mind DiPietro confirmed in the Boston goal: then we would expect Los Angeles to win by two or more and would change the pick to Los Angeles.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles win · incl. OT | 1.72 | 58.1% |
| Boston win · incl. OT | 2.09 | 47.8% |
| Los Angeles win in 60 min | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.13 | 24.2% |
| Boston win in 60 min | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Boston +1.5 | 1.43 | 69.9% |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.79 | 55.9% |
| Under 5.5 goals | 2.01 | 49.8% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 05:19 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- If DiPietro starts, Boston have a goalie with three NHL starts on the second night of a back-to-back.
- Los Angeles are 0-3-2 but have lost three games by one goal and outshoot opponents 30.6 to 26.6.
- A late empty-net goal turns a one-goal game into a two-goal defeat for this pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Boston +1.5 at 1.43 · analysis only. We expect 3:2, but Boston's goalie is not confirmed and they play a second night in a row, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Boston +1.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:2Boston +1.5 at 1.43
- Happened
- 1:4Boston win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.