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Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 7 · Falmer

BrightonvsCrystal Palace Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace · prediction

Score
5:0
Date
18 OCT
City
Falmer
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Brighton vs Crystal Palace?

Our Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction is a Brighton win, most likely 2:1 at the American Express Stadium on Sunday at 14:00 UK. Brighton have won five in a row with 17 goals scored and 2 conceded, including 3:0 against Arsenal, and over ten games they have taken 69% of the shots on target. Palace are 2-1-2 in their last five and allow 2.30 expected goals a game in the league. It is still the M23 derby, which keeps this as analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 2:0
2:1
Our estimate
62–66%
Brighton win · odds 1.48Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Brighton win
Price now
1.48

Brighton vs Crystal Palace at a glance

MatchBrighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League · Matchday 7
Kick-off18 OCT · 14:00 UK · 14:00 Falmer
VenueAmerican Express Stadium, Falmer
Our pickBrighton win · 1.48 · analysis only
Our estimate62–66%
Predicted score2:1
Main reasonWe think Brighton win this derby.
No. 04 · Form

Brighton vs Crystal Palace: recent form

Brighton 15 from 15. Crystal Palace 7 from 15.

Brighton15 pts
  • Winvs Žalgiris4:0
  • Winvs Sunderland2:0
  • Winvs Arsenal3:0
  • Winvs Manchester United3:2
  • Winvs Coventry City5:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
3.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
20%
Crystal Palace7 pts
  • Lossvs Lyon2:3
  • Winvs Nottingham Forest3:1
  • Drawvs Leeds United0:0
  • Winvs Lech Poznań4:0
  • Lossvs Ipswich Town2:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Key factBrighton's last five are all wins: 4:0 against Žalgiris, 2:0 at Sunderland, 3:0 against Arsenal, 3:2 at Manchester United in the cup and 5:0 at Coventry. Over ten games they are 7-2-1 with 29 goals scored and 7 conceded, 20.7 shots a game against 9.6, and seven clean sheets. In the league Understat has them at 2.42 expected goals for and 1.58 against a game. Palace lost 2:3 in Lyon, beat Nottingham Forest 3:1, drew 0:0 at Leeds, beat Lech Poznań 4:0 and lost 2:3 to Ipswich; over ten games they take only 41% of the shots.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Brighton vs Crystal Palace team news

Brighton without Mitoma; Palace without the suspended Disasi.

Brighton
  • OutKaoru MitomaInjury, one source
  • OutAzizInjury, one source
  • DoubtMats WiefferFitness doubt, one source
  • DoubtYankuba MintehFitness doubt, one source
Crystal Palace
  • OutAxel DisasiSuspended, one source
  • DoubtDean HendersonFitness doubt, one source
  • DoubtJean-Philippe MatetaFitness doubt, one source
  • DoubtTakehiro TomiyasuFitness doubt, one source
TacticsOur only team news comes from Sports Mole, so none of it is confirmed by a second source. It has Kaoru Mitoma and Aziz out for Brighton, with Mats Wieffer, Yankuba Minteh and Struijk listed as doubts, and for Palace Axel Disasi suspended and Dean Henderson, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Takehiro Tomiyasu doubtful. Both teams played in Europe on Thursday, Brighton beating Žalgiris 4:0 in the Conference League and Palace losing 2:3 in Lyon in the Europa League, and both travel again on Thursday, so each side has three days of rest and some rotation is likely on both benches. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?

The one preview we read sees a clear home win.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleBrighton 3:1Same side
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect a slightly closer score: Palace scored in four of their last five and the derby rarely turns into a rout.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Brighton vs Crystal Palace predicted score

Brighton push, Palace defend deep and break.

Brighton should dominate the ball and the shots, as they have done in almost every game for two months. Palace will sit in and look for breaks; they scored in four of their last five games, including three against Forest. 2:1 is our main score and 2:0 the alternative if Palace's attack stays quiet. A Brighton win covers both scores; the pick loses with a draw or a Palace win.

Predicted score
2:1
Alternative
2:0
Your score
BHA2
CRY1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Brighton vs Crystal Palace pick: Brighton win

Brighton win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Brighton win this derby. Over ten games they take more than two thirds of the shots and the shots on target, they have kept seven clean sheets, and they arrive on five straight wins. Palace give away 2.30 expected goals a game in the league and lose the shot count in most games. The derby and the European games on both sides keep us from a bet, but Brighton are our pick and 2:1 our score.

Our probability62–66%
Our pickBrighton win
Odds1.48
Main scenario2:1
Our scenario
2:1alternative 2:0

What would change our mind Brighton rotating most of their starting attack for Thursday's trip to Jablonec, with Mateta fit for Palace: then the draw becomes a serious result.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Brighton win1.4867.6%
Draw4.6421.6%
Crystal Palace win6.0316.6%
Brighton or draw1.1289.3%
Over 2.5 goals1.5464.9%
Under 2.5 goals2.4540.8%
Both teams to score1.6759.9%
Both teams not to score2.1646.3%

Odds snapshot 18 OCT 05:20 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why Palace could take a point.

  1. It is the M23 derby, and derbies cut the gap between the sides.
  2. Brighton's 17:2 run includes Coventry, Sunderland and Žalgiris; their goals have also come above their shots on target, 81% of the goals against 69% of the shots on target over ten games.
  3. Both teams play in Europe again on Thursday, so heavy rotation could level the game.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Brighton to win · analysis only. We expect 2:1, but it is a derby with European games on both sides, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Brighton win
Odds
1.48
Published
18 OCT 06:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:1Brighton win at 1.48
Happened
5:0Brighton win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.