ENES
Join the club
Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 7 · Leeds

LeedsvsMan United Leeds United vs Manchester United · prediction

Score
1:1
Date
18 OCT
City
Leeds
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Leeds vs Man United?

Our Leeds vs Manchester United prediction is Manchester United or the draw, most likely 1:1 at Elland Road on Sunday at 14:00 UK. Leeds are favourites with the bookmakers, but they have won one of their last five games, while United, winless in five under Michael Carrick, still create more: 1.91 expected goals a game in the league against Leeds' 1.40, and 60% of the shots on target over their last ten matches against Leeds' 41%. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:2
1:1
Our estimate
58–63%
Man United or draw · odds 1.59Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Man United or draw
Price now
1.59

Leeds vs Man United at a glance

MatchLeeds United vs Manchester United
CompetitionPremier League · Matchday 7
Kick-off18 OCT · 14:00 UK · 14:00 Leeds
VenueElland Road, Leeds
Our pickMan United or draw · 1.59 · analysis only
Our estimate58–63%
Predicted score1:1
Main reasonWe think Manchester United do not lose this one.
No. 04 · Form

Leeds vs Man United: recent form

Leeds 5 from 15. Man United 2 from 15.

Leeds5 pts
  • Lossvs Arsenal1:2
  • Drawvs Crystal Palace0:0
  • Winvs Newcastle United4:1
  • Lossvs Chelsea3:6
  • Drawvs Brighton & Hove Albion1:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Man United2 pts
  • Lossvs Atlético Madrid0:2
  • Drawvs Tottenham Hotspur1:1
  • Drawvs Fulham1:1
  • Lossvs Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
  • Lossvs Manchester City0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
20%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Key factLeeds' last five: 1:2 at Arsenal, 0:0 with Crystal Palace, 4:1 against Newcastle, 3:6 at Chelsea in the cup and 1:1 at Brighton, one win in five. They have 9 points from six league games with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded, and Understat has them at 1.40 expected goals for and 1.46 against a game. United's last five are two draws and three defeats: 0:2 at Atlético Madrid, 1:1 with Tottenham, 1:1 at Fulham, 2:3 to Brighton in the cup and 0:1 to Manchester City. Their league expected goals are 1.91 for and 1.54 against, and they have six points, about three fewer than their chances deserve.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Leeds vs Man United team news

United without Šeško; Leeds' injury list depends on the source.

Leeds
  • OutMateo JosephInjury, one source
  • OutJoe RodonInjury, one source
  • DoubtDan JamesFitness doubt, one source
Man United
  • OutBenjamin ŠeškoInjury
  • DoubtLisandro MartínezDisciplined by the club, one source
  • DoubtLuke ShawFitness doubt, one source
  • DoubtKobbie MainooFitness doubt, one source
TacticsBenjamin Šeško is out for Manchester United, reported by both SI and Yahoo. SI writes that Lisandro Martínez was disciplined by the club for public criticism and will probably miss out, while Last Word on Sports has him in the squad, so we treat his place as open. Yahoo lists Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo as doubts; no second source confirms it. For Leeds, NBC Sports reports Mateo Joseph and Joe Rodon out and Dan James a doubt, but SI says Daniel Farke has no new injuries, so none of those absences is an argument for us. Leeds have had eight days of rest since losing 1:2 at Arsenal; United come in on five after a 0:2 at Atlético Madrid and visit Como in the Champions League on Wednesday. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 4

Who do others back in Leeds vs Man United?

Three of the four previews we read back Leeds.

SourcePickVersus us
SILeeds 2:1Other side
NBC SportsLeeds 2:1Other side
GoalLeeds to winOther side
Forebet (model)1:1Same side
Our positionWe go against the majority here. The previews lean on United's bad run; we look at the shots. Leeds win the shot count less often than they lose it, and United have put 5.7 shots on target a game over ten matches against 3.8 allowed.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Leeds vs Man United predicted score

United have the ball and the chances; Leeds wait for set pieces and transitions.

Leeds at home will press early, as they did in the 4:1 against Newcastle, but over ten games they have allowed 5.5 shots on target a game and managed 3.8. United should have more of the ball and more of the chances, even if their finishing has been poor for a month. 1:1 is our main score and 1:2 to United the alternative. Manchester United or the draw wins with 0:0, 1:1, 2:2, 0:1 or 1:2 and loses with any Leeds win, including the 2:1 three previews expect.

Predicted score
1:1
Alternative
1:2
Your score
LEE1
MUN1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Leeds vs Man United pick: Man United or draw

Man United or draw: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Manchester United do not lose this one. Their results are bad, but the numbers underneath are better than Leeds': more expected goals a game, a far bigger share of the shots on target, and about three points fewer than their chances deserve. Leeds have won once in five and rely on finishing more than on chances. We expect a tight game and a 1:1, with a United win the next most likely result.

Our probability58–63%
Our pickMan United or draw
Odds1.59
Main scenario1:1
Our scenario
1:1alternative 1:2

What would change our mind A rotated United line-up without Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro, with Wednesday's game in Como in mind: then a Leeds win becomes the likelier result.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Leeds win2.3342.9%
Draw3.5528.2%
Man United win2.8934.6%
Leeds or draw1.4170.9%
Man United or draw1.5962.9%
Over 2.5 goals1.6660.2%
Under 2.5 goals2.1746.1%
Both teams to score1.5664.1%
Both teams not to score2.3941.8%

Odds snapshot 18 OCT 05:20 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why Leeds could win.

  1. Three of the four previews we read and the market both make Leeds the favourite.
  2. United have not won in more than a month, the Martínez row is a distraction and they play in Como on Wednesday, so Carrick may rotate.
  3. Leeds have conceded only 5 goals in six league games, so a 1:0 or 2:1 to the home side is very possible.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Manchester United or the draw · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but three of four previews back Leeds and United are winless in five, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Man United or draw
Odds
1.59
Published
18 OCT 06:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:1Man United or draw at 1.59
Happened
1:1Draw

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

Read next

FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.