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Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 7 · London

TottenhamvsCoventry Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City · prediction

Score
3:1
Date
19 OCT
City
London
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Tottenham vs Coventry?

Our Tottenham vs Coventry prediction is a Tottenham win, most likely 1:0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday night at 20:00 UK. Roberto De Zerbi's Tottenham are bottom of the Premier League with three points and no win in six league games, but they create more than they score: 1.31 expected goals a game against three actual goals. Frank Lampard's Coventry arrive on two straight wins, 4:1 against Newcastle and 1:0 at Forest, yet still concede 1.80 expected goals a game. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:0
Our estimate
58–63%
Tottenham win · odds 1.48Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Tottenham win
Price now
1.48

Tottenham vs Coventry at a glance

MatchTottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City
CompetitionPremier League · Matchday 7
Kick-off19 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 London
VenueTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Our pickTottenham win · 1.48 · analysis only
Our estimate58–63%
Predicted score1:0
Main reasonWe think Tottenham finally turn their chances into a win.
No. 04 · Form

Tottenham vs Coventry: recent form

Tottenham 3 from 15. Coventry 6 from 15.

Tottenham3 pts
  • Drawvs Manchester United1:1
  • Lossvs Aston Villa2:3
  • Lossvs Liverpool1:3
  • Drawvs Everton0:0
  • Drawvs Nottingham Forest0:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Coventry6 pts
  • Winvs Newcastle United4:1
  • Winvs Nottingham Forest1:0
  • Lossvs Aston Villa1:3
  • Lossvs Brighton & Hove Albion0:5
  • Lossvs Manchester City0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factTottenham's last five: 1:1 at Manchester United, 2:3 at home to Aston Villa, 1:3 at Liverpool in the Carabao Cup, 0:0 with Everton and 0:0 at Nottingham Forest. Their league record is 0-3-3 with three goals scored and nine conceded, and Sporting Life notes they have won only 3 of their last 22 home league games since the start of last season. Understat still has them about 4.7 points short of what their chances deserve. Coventry beat Newcastle 4:1 and Forest 1:0, but before that lost 1:3 to Villa in the cup, 0:5 to Brighton and 0:1 at Manchester City. Over their last five games they allowed almost 20 shots a game.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Tottenham vs Coventry team news

Spurs without Bentancur, Bergvall, Savio and Porro; Kulusevski back on the bench.

Tottenham
  • OutLucas BergvallKnee injury
  • OutSavioMuscle injury
  • OutPedro PorroThigh injury
  • OutRodrigo BentancurSuspended
  • OutXavi SimonsCruciate ligament injury
  • OutWilson OdobertKnee injury
Coventry
  • OutLuke WoolfendenKnee injury
  • OutAmendaCalf injury
  • OutJosh EcclesInjured
  • OutHaji WrightThigh injury
TacticsThe club confirmed after De Zerbi's press conference that Lucas Bergvall (knee, about two weeks) and Savio (muscle) miss the game, and that Pedro Porro (thigh) is not ready yet. Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended after his red card at Old Trafford, and Sports Mole and SportsGambler both list Xavi Simons (cruciate ligament) and Wilson Odobert (knee) as out. Dejan Kulusevski returns to the bench, the club says. Sports Mole also lists Mykhailo Mudryk with an ankle problem, which we could not confirm elsewhere. Coventry are without Luke Woolfenden, Amenda, Josh Eccles and Haji Wright, according to Sports Mole and SportsGambler; Sports Mole adds that Taiwo Awoniyi is back from suspension. Tottenham have had nine days of rest after a training camp in Marbella, Coventry seven. Both play again in the league on Saturday, Spurs at Chelsea. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 4

Who do others back in Tottenham vs Coventry?

Three of the four previews we read have Tottenham winning; one sees a draw.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleTottenham 1:0Same side
Sporting LifeTottenham 2:1Same side
footballdream (model)Tottenham 1:0Same side
SportsGambler1:1Other side
Our positionWe agree with Sports Mole and footballdream on 1:0. Sporting Life also picks Spurs but warns about their home record, and the models we read give Tottenham between 37% and 48%, well below the 64% the bookmakers imply.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Tottenham vs Coventry predicted score

Spurs push, Coventry sit deep and wait for the break.

Tottenham should have most of the ball and most of the shots, as they had in their last ten games, 15 a game against 12.5. Without Bentancur and Bergvall the midfield is thin, so chances may come late rather than early. Coventry will defend deep and look for the counter that worked against Newcastle. 1:0 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Spurs keep missing. Any Tottenham win takes our pick; a draw or a Coventry win loses it.

Predicted score
1:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
TOT1
COV0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Tottenham vs Coventry pick: Tottenham win

Tottenham win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Tottenham finally turn their chances into a win. They create 1.31 expected goals a game and have scored three in six, which looks like bad finishing more than a bad team. Coventry concede 1.80 expected goals a game and gave up almost 20 shots a game over their last five. After nine days of work and with the whole stadium waiting for a first win, we expect a narrow 1:0.

Our probability58–63%
Our pickTottenham win
Odds1.48
Main scenario1:0
Our scenario
1:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind An early Coventry goal: a team without a league win all season would then have to chase the game, and the draw or an away win becomes the likelier result.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Tottenham win1.4867.6%
Draw4.5921.8%
Coventry win6.0816.4%
Tottenham or draw1.1289.3%
Coventry or draw2.6238.2%
Over 2.5 goals1.5863.3%
Under 2.5 goals2.3842%
Both teams to score1.7158.5%
Both teams not to score2.1147.4%

Odds snapshot 19 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why Coventry could leave with a point or more.

  1. Tottenham have not won a league game this season and have won 3 of their last 22 at home in the league.
  2. Bentancur, Bergvall, Savio and Porro are all missing, which leaves the midfield and the right side short.
  3. Coventry come in on two straight wins, including 4:1 against Newcastle a week ago.
  4. Independent models give Spurs 37% to 48%, far below what the price suggests.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Tottenham to win · analysis only. We expect 1:0, but a team without a win in six league games and missing four starters is not one we are sure enough of to bet on.

Market
Tottenham win
Odds
1.48
Published
19 OCT 06:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:0Tottenham win at 1.48
Happened
3:1Tottenham win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.