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Football · Portugal · Primeira Liga · Matchday 2, rescheduled · Braga

BragavsGil Vicente SC Braga vs Gil Vicente · prediction

Score
1:2
Date
19 OCT
City
Braga
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Our Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction is under 2.5 goals, most likely a 1:0 to Braga at the Estádio Municipal de Braga on Monday at 20:15 UK and Portugal time. This is the round-two game that was first set for August and moved to October. Carlos Vicens' Braga have won one of their last five, lost 0:3 in Copenhagen on Thursday and score little, but they keep the ball and rarely concede many chances. Gil Vicente have the same 11 points and have conceded only five goals in seven league games. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:0
Our estimate
54–57%
Under 2.5 goals · odds 1.74Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Under 2.5 goals
Price now
1.74

Braga vs Gil Vicente at a glance

MatchSC Braga vs Gil Vicente
CompetitionPrimeira Liga · Matchday 2, rescheduled
Kick-off19 OCT · 20:15 UK · 20:15 Braga
VenueEstádio Municipal de Braga, Braga
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals · 1.74 · analysis only
Our estimate54–57%
Predicted score1:0
Main reasonWe think this stays tight.
No. 04 · Form

Braga vs Gil Vicente: recent form

Braga 4 from 15. Gil Vicente 7 from 15.

Braga4 pts
  • Lossvs FC Copenhagen0:3
  • Lossvs Sporting CP1:3
  • Drawvs Santa Clara0:0
  • Winvs Estoril1:0
  • Lossvs Estrela da Amadora1:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Gil Vicente7 pts
  • Winvs União de Santarém3:2
  • Winvs Moreirense1:0
  • Drawvs CS Marítimo1:1
  • Lossvs SL Benfica1:3
  • Lossvs Académico de Viseu0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Key factBraga's last five: 0:3 at FC Copenhagen in the Conference League, 1:3 at home to Sporting CP, 0:0 at Santa Clara, 1:0 against Estoril and 1:2 at Estrela da Amadora, three goals scored and eight conceded. Yet over ten games they put 4.0 shots on target a game against 2.4, kept six clean sheets and saw both teams score only three times. Gil Vicente won 3:2 at União de Santarém in the cup, 1:0 at Moreirense, drew 1:1 with Marítimo, lost 1:3 at Benfica and 0:1 at home to Académico de Viseu. In the league table both sides have 11 points from seven games; Braga's goals are 8:8, Gil Vicente's 6:5, according to ESPN.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Braga vs Gil Vicente team news

No confirmed team news for either side.

Braga

No absences reported.

Gil Vicente

No absences reported.

TacticsThe only preview with team news we found, SportsGambler, lists Sikou Niakaté (ankle) as out for Braga and Ricardo Esgaio (red card), Zé Carlos, Mohamed Bamba and Arthur Tchaptchet as out for Gil Vicente, but the same site puts some of those players in its predicted line-ups. We found no second source, so we do not count any absence in our call. Braga played in Copenhagen in the Conference League on Thursday and host Gent in the same competition on Thursday, three days after this game, so Vicens may rotate. Gil Vicente have had five days of rest after a 3:2 cup win at União de Santarém on Wednesday, and they visit Porto on Saturday. The reason the game was postponed from August was not given by our sources. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 2

Who do others back in Braga vs Gil Vicente?

The preview we read expects a draw; a model makes Braga favourites at about 50%.

SourcePick
SportsGambler1:1
Sports Mole (model)Braga 49.7%
Our positionWe agree with SportsGambler that this will be close and low on goals, and with the Sports Mole model that Braga are the likelier winner. The bookmakers give Braga about 60%, more than either source, but both our scores, 1:0 and 1:1, stay under 2.5 goals.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Braga vs Gil Vicente predicted score

Braga have the ball; Gil Vicente sit in a low block.

Braga should control possession and the shots, as they have for ten games, but they have struggled to turn that into goals, with three in their last five. Gil Vicente defend well and need only one chance to hurt a nervous home side. 1:0 is our main score and 1:1 the alternative. Under 2.5 goals wins with 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:0 or 0:2 and loses with 2:1, 1:2 or any score with three goals or more.

Predicted score
1:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
SCB1
GIL0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Braga vs Gil Vicente pick: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think this stays tight. Braga control games, with 62% of the shots on target over ten matches, but they hardly score, and Gil Vicente have conceded five goals in seven league games. Braga kept six clean sheets in their last ten, and both teams scored in only three of them. We see Braga with the ball, Gil Vicente deep and a narrow score, 1:0 or 1:1.

Our probability54–57%
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals
Odds1.74
Main scenario1:0
Wins with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Loses with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Our scenario
1:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind Braga naming a reserve side before Gent and playing a more open game: then three goals or more becomes a real result.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Braga win1.5564.5%
Draw3.8526%
Gil Vicente win6.1416.3%
Braga or draw1.1190.1%
Gil Vicente or draw2.3742.2%
Over 2.5 goals2.0648.5%
Under 2.5 goals1.7457.5%
Both teams to score2.0947.8%
Both teams not to score1.6959.2%

Odds snapshot 19 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why the game could open up.

  1. Braga have scored only three in five, but they keep creating: a 2:0 still wins the pick, a 2:1 does not.
  2. Gil Vicente scored three goals in the cup on Wednesday.
  3. Rotation before Gent could leave Braga more open at the back.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: under 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:0, but we found only one preview and no confirmed team news, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.74
Published
19 OCT 06:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:0Under 2.5 goals at 1.74
Happened
1:2Gil Vicente win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.