Bednarek applauds Porto's boos. Eight from eight in Portugal, zero in Europe
Our take Porto lose Europe in both boxes, not the stands
Football · Portugal · Primeira Liga · Matchday 8 · Funchal
MarítimovsPorto CS Marítimo vs FC Porto · prediction
Score
1:2
Date
10 OCT
City
Funchal
Status
Full time
MAR1:2PORFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Marítimo vs Porto?
Porto travel to Madeira on Saturday with seven wins from seven in the Primeira Liga and three goals conceded. Marítimo have two points from their last five league games. We back a Porto away win, most likely 2:0.
- Predicted score · alt 1:2
- 0:2
- Our estimate
- 70–74%
- Market
- Porto win
- Our bet
- Double No. 60 · total odds 1.44
- Leg odds
- 1.27
Marítimo vs Porto at a glance
| Match | CS Marítimo vs FC Porto |
|---|---|
| Competition | Primeira Liga · Matchday 8 |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 18:00 UK · 18:00 Funchal |
| Venue | Estádio do Marítimo (Barreiros), Funchal |
| Our pick | Porto win · 1.27 · Double No. 60 · total odds 1.44 |
| Our estimate | 70–74% |
| Predicted score | 0:2 |
| Main reason | Our editorial team trusts Porto here. |
No. 04 · Form
Marítimo vs Porto: recent form
Marítimo 2 from 15. Porto 15 from 15.
Marítimo2 pts
- Drawvs Gil Vicente1:1
- Lossvs Moreirense1:3
- Lossvs Benfica0:3
- Lossvs Arouca1:2
- Drawvs Académico de Viseu2:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Porto15 pts
- Winvs Benfica3:1
- Winvs Casa Pia4:1
- Winvs Moreirense2:1
- Winvs Académico de Viseu3:0
- Winvs Arouca2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factPorto lead the table on 21 points, three ahead of Sporting, who have played a game more, with 18 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their only defeat this season was 0:2 at home to Manchester City in the Champions League. Marítimo have eight points and one home win, on the opening weekend.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Marítimo vs Porto team news
Porto get Fofana, Veiga and Martim Fernandes back; Marítimo without Santiago.
Marítimo
- OutYellu SantiagoHamstring injury
- DoubtAdrian ButzkeForced off injured against Gil Vicente
- DoubtSimo BouzaidiBack in team training
Porto
- OutNehuén PérezInjury
- OutZaidu SanusiInjury
- OutVasco SousaInjury
- OutJoão CostaInjury
TacticsFrancesco Farioli has Seko Fofana, Gabri Veiga and Martim Fernandes available again, while Nehuén Pérez, Zaidu, Vasco Sousa and João Costa are injured. Bednarek and Kiwior are expected in central defence, with André Silva up front; Samu is back in the squad after a long injury. Mitchell van der Gaag’s Marítimo miss Yellu Santiago, and striker Adrian Butzke is a doubt after going off against Gil Vicente.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in Marítimo vs Porto?
All three previews we read expect a Porto win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Porto 2:0 | Same side |
| Football Whispers | Porto 3:1 | Same side |
| Scores24 | Porto 2:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner. Two of the three expect Marítimo to score; we think Porto’s defence keeps them out.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Marítimo vs Porto predicted score
Porto press high, Marítimo hold on.
Porto should press high and dominate the ball in Funchal, while Marítimo sit deep and wait for counters and set pieces. 0:2 is our main score; 1:2 is the alternative if Marítimo get one back. A draw is the result that beats us.
- Predicted score
- 0:2
- Alternative
- 1:2
Your score
MAR
POR
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Marítimo vs Porto pick: Porto win
Porto win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Our editorial team trusts Porto here. They have won all seven league games, conceded three goals and beat Benfica 3:1 in their last match before the break. Marítimo have not won in five league games and have conceded eleven in that run. We expect Porto to keep the ball, score early and win, most likely 2:0.
Our probability70–74%
Our pickPorto win
Leg odds1.27
Main scenario0:2
- Our scenario
- 0:2alternative 1:2
What would change our mind A heavily rotated Porto XI with the Betis trip in mind, or a pitch that turns the game into a lottery.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Marítimo win | 9.96 | 10% |
| Draw | 5.12 | 19.5% |
| Porto win | 1.27 | 78.7% |
Odds snapshot 10 OCT 09:51 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Barreiros is a hard away trip for Porto: six wins, five draws and four defeats in their last 15 visits.
- Farioli himself warned about the pitch and called Marítimo a side that has always caused Porto problems.
- It is the first game after a three-week break, and Porto play Real Betis in the Champions League on Wednesday.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Porto win is one leg of our double No. 60. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.44, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 60 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Porto win at 1.27
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 0:2Bet at 1.27
- Happened
- 1:2Porto win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.