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Football · Turkey · Süper Lig · Matchday 8 · Trabzon

TrabzonsporvsBeşiktaş Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş JK · prediction

Score
2:0
Date
19 OCT
City
Trabzon
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?

Our Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş prediction is both teams to score, most likely a 1:1 at Papara Park on Monday at 18:00 UK (20:00 in Trabzon). This is the big game of the Süper Lig round: Beşiktaş are fourth on 15 points, Trabzonspor fifth on 13, and both have won four of their last five. Both also won away in Europe on Thursday, Trabzonspor 4:2 at KuPS and Beşiktaş 3:2 at Hoffenheim. The bookmakers cannot split them, and we expect goals at both ends. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 2:2
1:1
Our estimate
61–66%
Both teams to score · odds 1.45Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Both teams to score
Price now
1.45

Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş at a glance

MatchTrabzonspor vs Beşiktaş JK
CompetitionSüper Lig · Matchday 8
Kick-off19 OCT · 18:00 UK · 20:00 Trabzon
VenuePapara Park, Trabzon
Our pickBoth teams to score · 1.45 · analysis only
Our estimate61–66%
Predicted score1:1
Main reasonWe think both teams score.
No. 04 · Form

Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş: recent form

Trabzonspor 12 from 15. Beşiktaş 12 from 15.

Trabzonspor12 pts
  • Winvs KuPS4:2
  • Winvs Samsunspor3:0
  • Winvs Galatasaray4:0
  • Lossvs Konyaspor0:1
  • Winvs Gençlerbirliği5:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
3.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
20%
Beşiktaş12 pts
  • Winvs TSG Hoffenheim3:2
  • Winvs Kocaelispor2:1
  • Lossvs Amed SFK2:3
  • Winvs Olympique de Marseille4:1
  • Winvs Erzurumspor3:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factTrabzonspor's last five: 4:2 at KuPS in the Conference League, 3:0 at Samsunspor, 4:0 at home to Galatasaray, 0:1 at Konyaspor and 5:0 against Gençlerbirliği, 16 goals scored and 3 conceded. Sports Mole has them at 11:1 in their three home league games this season. Beşiktaş won 3:2 at Hoffenheim, 2:1 against Kocaelispor, lost 2:3 at Amed SFK, beat Marseille 4:1 in the Europa League and Erzurumspor 3:0. Over ten games Beşiktaş put 6.1 shots on target a game and allow 3.0, and they scored in eight of those ten. Trabzonspor scored in seven of their last ten, and their games went over 2.5 goals seven times.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş team news

Team news comes from one preview only, so treat it with care.

Trabzonspor
  • OutMelih KabasakalReported suspended, not confirmed
  • OutPaul OnuachuReported injured, not confirmed
  • OutUmut NayirReported injured, not confirmed
  • OutOnuralp ÇevikkanReported injured, not confirmed
  • OutRuslan MalinovskyiReported injured, not confirmed
Beşiktaş
  • DoubtDušan VlahovićReported doubtful, not confirmed
  • DoubtMilot RashicaReported doubtful, not confirmed
  • DoubtVáclav ČernýReported doubtful, not confirmed
TacticsSports Mole reports that Trabzonspor are without Melih Kabasakal (suspended), Onuralp Çevikkan and Umut Nayir (hamstrings), Ruslan Malinovskyi (knee) and Paul Onuachu, who went off with a muscle problem in midweek; Mustafa Eskihellaç, Okay Yokuşlu and Stefan Savić are doubts. For Beşiktaş, Sports Mole lists Milot Rashica and Václav Černý (thighs) and Dušan Vlahović (viral illness, missed the Hoffenheim game) as doubts. We could not find a second source for any of these, so none of it is confirmed. Rest is equal at four days, and both play at home in Europe again on Thursday: Trabzonspor against Hearts in the Conference League, Beşiktaş against Crystal Palace in the Europa League. Some rotation is possible, but this is a game for the top of the table. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?

The one preview we found expects a 2:2.

SourcePick
Sports Mole2:2
Our positionWe agree with Sports Mole that both teams score and that the winner is hard to call. The line is almost level, 37.5% for Trabzonspor and 37.1% for Beşiktaş, so our call rests on the goals rather than the result. Sports Mole also notes that Trabzonspor are unbeaten in their last five home games against Beşiktaş, with one win and four draws.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş predicted score

An open game between two attacks in form.

Trabzonspor are strong at home and will push from the start in front of their crowd. Beşiktaş have taken 64% of the shots in their last ten games and should get chances on the break. Neither side has a reason to sit back: a win lifts either of them towards the top. 1:1 is our main score and 2:2 the alternative. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2 or any score where both sides find the net; it loses with 1:0, 2:0, 0:1, 0:2 or 0:0.

Predicted score
1:1
Alternative
2:2
Your score
TS1
BJK1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş pick: Both teams to score

Both teams to score: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think both teams score. Beşiktaş create the most in this pair, 6.1 shots on target a game over ten matches against 3.0 in reply, and they scored in eight of those ten. Trabzonspor are dangerous at home and have scored 16 goals in their last five. We see an open game with goals at both ends, 1:1 or 2:2, but two level results are too many to call a winner.

Our probability61–66%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.45
Main scenario1:1
Wins with
1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
Loses with
1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
Our scenario
1:1alternative 2:2

What would change our mind Beşiktaş starting without both Vlahović and Rashica (line-ups at 17:00 UK): then a Trabzonspor clean sheet becomes a very real result.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Trabzonspor win2.4840.3%
Draw3.6627.3%
Beşiktaş win2.5139.8%
Trabzonspor or draw1.4867.6%
Beşiktaş or draw1.4967.1%
Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş1.2580%
Both teams to score1.4569%
Both teams not to score2.6338%

Odds snapshot 19 OCT 07:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why one side could keep a clean sheet.

  1. Trabzonspor have conceded one goal in three home league games this season, according to Sports Mole.
  2. If Onuachu and Umut Nayir are out, Trabzonspor may lack a finisher; this is not confirmed.
  3. Both teams scored in only four of Trabzonspor's last ten games.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: both teams to score · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but we found only one preview and none of the team news is confirmed, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Both teams to score
Odds
1.45
Published
19 OCT 08:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:1Both teams to score at 1.45
Happened
2:0Trabzonspor win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.