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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Toronto

TorontovsNY Rangers Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers · hockey prediction

Face-off · UK
00:00
Date · UK
23 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 22 OCT
City
Toronto
Status
Pre-match
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Toronto vs NY Rangers?

Our Maple Leafs vs Rangers prediction: the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Rangers at Scotiabank Arena, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 3:2. The New York Rangers arrive in this Original Six game without Igor Shesterkin, whose right knee injury ended his season, so Dylan Garand, with nine NHL starts, is expected in goal. Toronto are without John Tavares but have Auston Matthews, 8 goals and 10 assists in 11 games, and a power play scoring on 27.5% of chances. The line calls it 50-50 and the two models we found give New York a fraction more. Our pick: Toronto to win · analysis only.

Predicted score · alt 2:3
3:2
Our estimate
49–53%
Toronto win · incl. OT · odds 1.92Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Toronto win · incl. OT
Price now
1.92

Toronto vs NY Rangers at a glance

MatchToronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off23 OCT · 00:00 UK
VenueScotiabank Arena, Toronto
Our pickToronto win · incl. OT · 1.92 · analysis only
Our estimate49–53%
Predicted score3:2
Main reasonWe think home ice, a power play at 27.5% and a Rangers side without its No.
No. 04 · Form

Toronto vs NY Rangers: recent form

Toronto 2-3 in their last 5. NY Rangers 3-2.

Toronto
Won 6:2 in Columbus on Tue 20 Oct · two days of rest · 507 km trip home · fourth game in seven days
NY Rangers
Won 5:2 at home to Anaheim on Mon 19 Oct · three days of rest · 548 km trip to Toronto · first road game of the trip
Toronto2-3
  • Winvs Columbus6:2
  • Winvs San Jose3:1
  • Lossvs NY Islanders1:4
  • Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Buffalo4:5 OT
  • Lossvs Utah4:5
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.60
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
3.40
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
20%
NY Rangers3-2
  • Winvs Anaheim5:2
  • Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Columbus0:1 OT
  • Lossvs New Jersey1:7
  • Winvs Tampa Bay4:1
  • Winvs Vancouver6:2
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.60
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
20%
Key factToronto are 5-4-2 and 2-3 in their last five: losses to Utah (4:5), Buffalo (4:5 in overtime) and the Islanders (1:4), then wins over San Jose (3:1) and in Columbus (6:2) on Tuesday. The Rangers are 7-3-1 and 3-2 in their last five: 6:2 against Vancouver and 4:1 against Tampa Bay, then a 1:7 loss in New Jersey, 0:1 in overtime in Columbus and 5:2 against Anaheim on Monday. Last season both missed the mark: Toronto took 47.6% of the points with a -0.56 goal difference a game, New York 47.0% and -0.15.
Attack & defenceTORNYR
Wins and losses.5-4-27-3-1
Points %54.5%68.2%
Goal difference per game+0.27+0.82
Shots on goal per game.27.824.2
Shots against30.325.7
Special teamsTORNYR
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.27.5%20.6%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.97.4%94.1%
Last seasonTORNYR
Wins and losses.32-36-1434-39-9
Points %47.6%47.0%
Goal difference per game-0.56-0.15
Shots on goal per game.26.325.2
Shots against32.428.8
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.21.3%24.7%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.81.2%79.9%

NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Toronto vs NY Rangers: starting goalies and team news

Garand for the Rangers, Bobrovsky for Toronto.

TorontoExpected
Sergei Bobrovsky
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.902
Starts
7
SV% last season
.877
SV% 3 seasons
.893
NHL career starts
798
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:15 UTC on 22 Oct; Anthony Stolarz started the 6:2 win in Columbus on 20 Oct
NY RangersExpected
Dylan Garand
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.929
Starts
6
SV% last season
.948
NHL career starts
9
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:15 UTC on 22 Oct; he started the 5:2 win over Anaheim on 19 Oct, with Igor Shesterkin out for the season
Toronto
  • OutJohn TavaresInjured reserve
  • OutChris TanevLower body, injured reserve, week-to-week
  • OutMax DomiBack, long-term injured reserve
  • OutMiles WoodInjured reserve
  • OutDakota JoshuaAbdomen, conditioning stint in the AHL
  • OutElvis MerzlikinsShoulder, out four to six months
  • DoubtJake McCabeDay-to-day
NY Rangers
  • OutIgor ShesterkinRight knee, out for the season, needs surgery
  • OutJoonas KorpisaloLower body, at least four more weeks
  • OutJoe VelenoLower body, long-term injured reserve
  • OutAdam SykoraInjured reserve
  • OutAidan ThompsonInjured reserve
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Sergei Bobrovsky for Toronto and Dylan Garand for New York, both unconfirmed when we checked at about 05:15 UTC on 22 October. Bobrovsky has saved .902 in seven starts this season after .877 last season; Anthony Stolarz played Tuesday's 6:2 win in Columbus. Garand has saved .929 in six starts, but he has only nine NHL starts in his career: Shesterkin needs surgery on his right knee and is out for the season (Vince Mercogliano, The Athletic, via ESPN), and Joonas Korpisalo is out at least four more weeks (Elliotte Friedman, Sportsnet). Toronto miss Tavares, Chris Tanev (week-to-week), Max Domi, Miles Wood and Dakota Joshua; Jake McCabe is listed day-to-day by ESPN.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Toronto vs NY Rangers?

Both models we found are a hair on New York's side.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsNY Rangers 52.9%, projected 3.18 to 2.88Other side
DimersNY Rangers 50.8%Other side
Our positionWe disagree with both, but only by a few points. DRatings gives the Rangers 52.9% and Dimers 50.8%, which is close to a coin toss, and the line is 50-50. The models count the Rangers' better start, 7-3-1 against 5-4-2. We give more weight to the goalie change: a team that loses its No. 1 for the season and starts a goalie with nine NHL games usually pays for it over a run of games, and Toronto's power play is the best weapon on the ice tonight. We could not check MoneyPuck.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Toronto vs NY Rangers predicted score

Toronto's power play against a goalie with nine starts.

3:2 to Toronto is our main score: the Leafs take 27.8 shots a game against 24.2 for New York, Matthews and William Nylander (6 goals, 9 assists) find room on the power play, and Garand holds for long spells but concedes once more than he can afford. 2:3 to New York in overtime is the alternative: Garand keeps his .929, Alexis Lafrenière (7 goals, 6 assists) and Adam Fox (10 assists) punish Toronto's 30.3 shots allowed a game, and the Leafs feel their fourth game in seven days. Any Toronto win makes our pick, overtime and the shootout included; any Rangers win beats it.

Predicted score
3:2
Alternative
2:3
Your score
TOR3
NYR2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Toronto vs NY Rangers pick: Toronto win · incl. OT

Toronto win · incl. OT: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think home ice, a power play at 27.5% and a Rangers side without its No. 1 goalie tip a level game slightly to Toronto. But the line is 50-50, both models we found sit on the other side, and Toronto's defence allows more shots than New York's, so both results are possible and we are not sure enough to bet.

Our probability49–53%
Our pickToronto win · incl. OT
Odds1.92
Main scenario3:2
Our scenario
3:2alternative 2:3

What would change our mind Igor Shesterkin cannot return this season, so the change would come from Toronto: Matthews missing the game, or a late scratch on the Leafs' blue line beyond McCabe, would move our pick to New York.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Toronto win · incl. OT1.9252.1%
NY Rangers win · incl. OT1.9152.4%
Toronto win in 60 min2.4441%
Draw in 60 min4.2523.5%
NY Rangers win in 60 min2.4441%
Toronto +1.51.3673.5%
NY Rangers +1.51.3673.5%

Odds snapshot 22 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Both models we found favour New York, by 52.9% and 50.8%.
  2. Toronto play their fourth game in seven days, without Tavares and Tanev, and allow 30.3 shots a game.
  3. Bobrovsky saved only .877 last season and .902 so far, below Garand's .929 this season.
  4. The Rangers have the better record, 7-3-1 and +0.82 a game, and neither goalie was confirmed by a reporter.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Toronto win · incl. OT at 1.92 · analysis only. We expect 3:2; at 50-50 the game is too open for a bet.

Market
Toronto win · incl. OT
Odds
1.92
Published
22 OCT 06:20
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Toronto win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match

After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.

Read next

FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.