Ottawa are 7-1 with Ullmark in goal. He left on a routine save, and Ersson is 0-2
Our take Ottawa's 7-3 start rests on one goalie
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Toronto
TorontovsSan Jose Toronto Maple Leafs vs San Jose Sharks · hockey prediction
Score
3:1
Date · UK
20 OCT
Local time
19:30 · 19 OCT
City
Toronto
Status
Full time
TOR3:1SJSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Toronto vs San Jose?
Our Maple Leafs vs Sharks prediction: San Jose +1.5 goals, with a main score of 4:3 to Toronto. The Toronto Maple Leafs are 3-4-2, play without John Tavares and Chris Tanev, and have Anthony Stolarz as the expected goalie. The San Jose Sharks are 4-3-1 and have gone past regulation in three of their last five games. The line gives Toronto about 56%, and we expect a close, open game decided by one goal, so our pick is San Jose +1.5, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 4:3
- Our estimate
- 62–65%
- Market
- San Jose +1.5
- Price now
- 1.49
Toronto vs San Jose at a glance
| Match | Toronto Maple Leafs vs San Jose Sharks |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 20 OCT · 00:30 UK |
| Venue | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Our pick | San Jose +1.5 · 1.49 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 62–65% |
| Predicted score | 4:3 |
| Main reason | Toronto are favourites at home, but without Tavares and Tanev and with one win in five they are not dominant. |
No. 04 · Form
Toronto vs San Jose: recent form
Toronto 1-4 in their last 5. San Jose 2-3.
- Toronto
- Lost 1:4 at home to the Islanders on Sat 17 Oct · two days of rest · no travel · third home game in a row
- San Jose
- Lost 3:4 in a shootout in Detroit on Sat 17 Oct · two days of rest · 332 km trip to Toronto · third road game in a row
Toronto1-4
- Lossvs NY Islanders1:4
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Buffalo4:5 OT
- Lossvs Utah4:5
- Winvs Colorado6:3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Vegas3:4 SO
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.60
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 4.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
San Jose2-3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Detroit3:4 SO
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Nashville3:2 SO
- Lossvs Boston3:6
- Lossvs Edmonton1:3
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs St. Louis3:2 OT
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.60
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 60%
Key factToronto have won one of their last five: 6:3 in Colorado, then 4:5 in Utah, 4:5 in overtime against Buffalo and 1:4 at home to the Islanders on Saturday, after a 3:4 shootout loss in Vegas. They are 3-4-2 with -0.33 goals a game, and their only win by more than one goal this season is that 6:3. San Jose are 4-3-1 with -0.88 goals a game: heavy defeats to Dallas (0:5), Edmonton (1:3) and Boston (3:6), but also 3:2 in overtime in St. Louis, 3:2 in a shootout in Nashville and 3:4 in a shootout in Detroit on Saturday. Last season both were below average: Toronto took 47.6% of points with -0.56 goals a game, San Jose 52.4% with -0.50.
| Attack & defence | TOR | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-4-2 | 4-3-1 |
| Points % | 44.4% | 56.3% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.33 | -0.88 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 3.22 | 2.75 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 3.56 | 3.63 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 28.0 | 27.6 |
| Shots against | 29.3 | 27.5 |
| Special teams | TOR | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 26.7% | 23.1% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 96.4% | 80.8% |
| Last season | TOR | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 32-36-14 | 39-35-8 |
| Points % | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.56 | -0.50 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 26.3 | 25.8 |
| Shots against | 32.4 | 29.6 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 21.3% | 21.2% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 81.2% | 76.4% |
NHL 2026-27, 9 and 8 games; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Toronto vs San Jose: starting goalies and team news
Both teams are expected to change goalies from Saturday.
TorontoExpected
Anthony Stolarz- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .875
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 3.31
- Wins and losses.
- 2-1-0
- SV% last season
- .893
- SV% 3 seasons
- .910
- NHL career starts
- 144
San JoseExpected
Alex Nedeljkovic- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .920
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 2.20
- Wins and losses.
- 2-0-1
- SV% last season
- .896
- SV% 3 seasons
- .896
- NHL career starts
- 197
Toronto
- OutJohn TavaresLower body, injured reserve, week-to-week
- OutChris TanevInjured reserve, week-to-week
- OutMax DomiBack, long-term injured reserve
- OutMiles WoodInjured reserve
- OutDakota JoshuaAbdomen, conditioning stint in the AHL
San Jose
- OutQuentin MustyUpper body, injured reserve
- OutKyle KeyserUpper body, injured reserve
TacticsOn Monday morning Daily Faceoff listed Anthony Stolarz for Toronto and Alex Nedeljkovic for San Jose, both unconfirmed. Stolarz has started three games this season and saved .875, but over three seasons his .910 is better than the .892 of Sergei Bobrovsky, who started on Saturday and saved .842. Nedeljkovic has saved .920 in three starts and played in Detroit on Saturday. Yaroslav Askarov is not on the Sharks' injury list in ESPN's report or at CBS Sports; he has saved .848 in five starts, and a columnist at The Hockey News suggested giving more starts to Nedeljkovic, but the team has not given a reason. For Toronto, John Tavares went on injured reserve on 17 October and is week-to-week with a lower-body injury (TSN); Chris Tanev is week-to-week (Mark Masters, TSN). Max Domi (back) and Miles Wood are on injured reserve, and Dakota Joshua is on a conditioning stint in the AHL. San Jose are missing Quentin Musty and Kyle Keyser.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Toronto vs San Jose?
Both models we found see Toronto by less than a goal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Toronto 54.2%, projected 3.56 to 3.10 | Other side |
| Dimers | Toronto 56.8% | Other side |
Our positionBoth models are within two points of the line and agree that Toronto are slight favourites. DRatings projects 6.66 goals in total and a margin of 0.46: an open game, but a close one. We see the same: Toronto win, by one. San Jose +1.5 wins with any San Jose win, with a game that goes to overtime or a shootout, and with a Toronto win by one goal.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Toronto vs San Jose predicted score
Two shaky defences, one goal in it.
4:3 to Toronto is our main score: the home side's power play (26.7%) and penalty kill (96.4%) give them the upper hand on special teams, but neither goalie has been reliable enough to keep the score low. 2:3 to San Jose after overtime or a shootout is the alternative: the Sharks have taken three of their last five games past regulation, and Nedeljkovic is in better form than either Toronto goalie. San Jose +1.5 loses only to a Toronto win by two goals or more, and an empty-net goal at the end is the main way that happens.
- Predicted score
- 4:3
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
TOR
SJS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Toronto vs San Jose pick: San Jose +1.5
San Jose +1.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Toronto are favourites at home, but without Tavares and Tanev and with one win in five they are not dominant. San Jose keep their games close: three of the last five went past regulation. Both teams were below average last season, and both goalies tonight are the second choice by starts. We expect a one-goal Toronto win, but with both results possible we are not sure enough to bet.
Our probability62–65%
Our pickSan Jose +1.5
Odds1.49
Main scenario4:3
- Wins with
- 3:22:14:32:31:22:4…
- Loses with
- 4:23:15:24:15:36:3…
- Our scenario
- 4:3alternative 2:3
What would change our mind Askarov in the San Jose goal instead of Nedeljkovic, after his .848 in five starts, would make us less sure of a close game.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto win · incl. OT | 1.71 | 58.5% |
| San Jose win · incl. OT | 2.18 | 45.9% |
| Toronto win in 60 min | 2.14 | 46.7% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.22 | 23.7% |
| San Jose win in 60 min | 2.80 | 35.7% |
| San Jose +1.5 | 1.49 | 67.1% |
| Toronto −1.5 | 2.64 | 37.9% |
| Over 6.5 goals | 1.90 | 52.6% |
| Under 6.5 goals | 1.89 | 52.9% |
Odds snapshot 19 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- San Jose have lost by two goals or more in three of their eight games: 0:5 in Dallas, 1:3 to Edmonton and 3:6 to Boston.
- Toronto beat Colorado 6:3 on the road nine days ago: on a good night their attack can run away with the game.
- This is San Jose's third road game in a row, after a shootout in Detroit two days ago.
- A late empty-net goal turns a 4:3 into a 5:3 and loses this pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: San Jose +1.5 at 1.49 · analysis only. We expect 4:3; the game looks too even for a bet on either side.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick San Jose +1.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:3San Jose +1.5 at 1.49
- Happened
- 3:1Toronto win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
- Toronto's earlier gameMaple Leafs vs Sabres prediction, 15 October
- San Jose's earlier gameSharks vs Oilers prediction, 10 October
- Same nightRangers vs Ducks prediction, 19 October
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.