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Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 7 · Nottingham
ForestvsArsenal Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal · prediction
Score
0:1
Date
18 OCT
City
Nottingham
Status
Full time
NFO0:1ARSFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Forest vs Arsenal?
Our Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction is an Arsenal win, most likely 0:1 at the City Ground on Sunday at 16:30 UK. Mikel Arteta's Arsenal have won nine of their last ten games, kept six clean sheets in that run and allow only three shots on target a game. Oliver Glasner's Forest have lost two in a row, to Coventry and Crystal Palace, although their expected goals say they deserve far more than their points. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:2
- 0:1
- Our estimate
- 57–62%
- Market
- Arsenal win
- Price now
- 1.57
Forest vs Arsenal at a glance
| Match | Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League · Matchday 7 |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 16:30 UK · 16:30 Nottingham |
| Venue | The City Ground, Nottingham |
| Our pick | Arsenal win · 1.57 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 57–62% |
| Predicted score | 0:1 |
| Main reason | We think Arsenal win at the City Ground. |
No. 04 · Form
Forest vs Arsenal: recent form
Forest 5 from 15. Arsenal 12 from 15.
Forest5 pts
- Lossvs Crystal Palace1:3
- Lossvs Coventry City0:1
- Winvs Aston Villa2:1
- Drawvs Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- Drawvs Liverpool2:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Arsenal12 pts
- Winvs Lille3:0
- Winvs Leeds United2:1
- Lossvs Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- Winvs Ipswich Town4:2
- Winvs Sunderland2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factForest's last five: 1:3 at Crystal Palace, 0:1 against Coventry, 2:1 at Aston Villa, 0:0 with Tottenham and 2:2 at Liverpool; over ten games they have one win, 9 goals scored and 15 conceded. Yet Understat has them at 2.04 expected goals for and 1.21 against a game in the league, about six points fewer than their chances deserve. Arsenal beat Lille 3:0, Leeds 2:1, Ipswich 4:2 in the cup and Sunderland 2:0, and lost 0:3 at Brighton. Over ten games they are 9-0-1 with 21 goals scored and 7 conceded, and they hold 66% of the shots on target. Their league points are about three above their expected points.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Forest vs Arsenal team news
Arsenal without Saliba and Hincapié; Forest without Igor Jesus.
Forest
- OutIgor JesusCalf injury
- OutNicolò SavonaKnee injury
- DoubtNikola MilenkovićOut or doubtful, sources differ
- DoubtMorgan Gibbs-WhiteMuscle problem
Arsenal
- OutWilliam SalibaBack injury
- OutPiero HincapiéAnkle injury
- OutChristos TzolisThigh injury
- DoubtMartín ZubimendiFitness doubt
TacticsSI and a second preview agree that Forest are without striker Igor Jesus (calf) and Nicolò Savona (knee); Nikola Milenković is out or doubtful depending on the source, and Morgan Gibbs-White is a doubt with a muscle problem. Arsenal miss William Saliba with a back problem, Piero Hincapié with an ankle injury and Christos Tzolis with a thigh injury, and Martín Zubimendi is a doubt. That leaves Arsenal's centre-back pair weakened. Forest have had seven days of rest since the 1:3 at Palace; Arsenal have had five since beating Lille 3:0 and go to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday, so some rotation is possible. Michael Oliver referees. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Forest vs Arsenal?
Two of the three previews we read back Arsenal; one model sees Forest keeping it close.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| SI | Arsenal 0:1 | Same side |
| Yahoo Sports | Arsenal 1:2 | Same side |
| ats.io (model) | Forest +1.5 goals | Other side |
Our positionWe side with SI and Yahoo on the winner, and with SI on the score. The model's case for Forest rests on expected goals, which is fair, but Forest have scored once in their last two games and lost Igor Jesus.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Forest vs Arsenal predicted score
Arsenal control it, Forest threaten on the break.
Arsenal should keep the ball and limit Forest's chances, as they have for ten games, but without Saliba and Hincapié they are more open at the back than usual. Forest create plenty, 15.7 shots a game over ten matches, and will hope Gibbs-White is fit to carry them. 0:1 is our main score; 1:2 is the alternative if Forest score first or late. Any Arsenal win takes our pick; a draw or a Forest win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 0:1
- Alternative
- 1:2
Your score
NFO
ARS
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Forest vs Arsenal pick: Arsenal win
Arsenal win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Arsenal win at the City Ground. They have won nine of ten, allow three shots on target a game over that run and kept six clean sheets. Forest create chances but have lost two in a row and are without their main striker. A missing centre-back pair and the trip to Munich on Wednesday keep this as analysis, but our pick is Arsenal and our score 0:1.
Our probability57–62%
Our pickArsenal win
Odds1.57
Main scenario0:1
- Our scenario
- 0:1alternative 1:2
What would change our mind Gibbs-White and Ndoye both starting for Forest while Zubimendi is also missing for Arsenal: then the draw becomes a very real result.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Forest win | 6.15 | 16.3% |
| Draw | 3.91 | 25.6% |
| Arsenal win | 1.57 | 63.7% |
| Arsenal or draw | 1.12 | 89.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.92 | 52.1% |
| Both teams not to score | 1.85 | 54.1% |
Odds snapshot 18 OCT 05:20 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Forest could get something.
- Forest's 2.04 expected goals a game make them one of the league's most dangerous attacks on paper; they have simply not finished their chances.
- Arsenal are without two first-choice centre-backs and play Bayern Munich on Wednesday.
- Arsenal's points are three above what their chances deserve, and they lost 0:3 at Brighton three games ago.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Arsenal to win · analysis only. We expect 0:1, but Arsenal are an away favourite without two centre-backs and with Bayern on Wednesday, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 0:1Arsenal win at 1.57
- Happened
- 0:1Arsenal win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.