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Football · Spain · La Liga · Matchday 9 · Getafe

GetafevsRayo Getafe CF vs Rayo Vallecano · prediction

Score
1:1
Date
19 OCT
City
Getafe
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Getafe vs Rayo?

Our Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano prediction is under 2.5 goals, most likely a 1:1 at the Coliseum on Monday at 20:00 UK (21:00 in Madrid). Both teams have 8 points: Rayo are 14th after seven games, Getafe 15th after eight. José Bordalás' Getafe have scored only four league goals all season and create 0.81 expected goals a game, and Getafe have not beaten Rayo in their last ten meetings, six of which were draws. Beñat San José's Rayo have not finished an official match for 30 days. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:0
1:1
Our estimate
60–64%
Under 2.5 goals · odds 1.51Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Under 2.5 goals
Price now
1.51

Getafe vs Rayo at a glance

MatchGetafe CF vs Rayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga · Matchday 9
Kick-off19 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Getafe
VenueColiseum, Getafe
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals · 1.51 · analysis only
Our estimate60–64%
Predicted score1:1
Main reasonWe think this stays a low-scoring game.
No. 04 · Form

Getafe vs Rayo: recent form

Getafe 5 from 15. Rayo 7 from 15.

Getafe5 pts
  • Drawvs Universitatea Craiova1:1
  • Lossvs FC Barcelona0:3
  • Winvs Málaga CF1:0
  • Lossvs Real Betis0:1
  • Drawvs Deportivo La Coruña1:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
20%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Rayo7 pts
  • Drawvs Osasuna1:1
  • Winvs Espanyol2:1
  • Lossvs Real Madrid1:4
  • Winvs Racing Santander3:2
  • Lossvs FC Barcelona2:5
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
100%
Key factGetafe's last five: 1:1 at Universitatea Craiova in the Conference League, 0:3 at Barcelona, 1:0 at home to Málaga, 0:1 at Real Betis and 1:1 with Deportivo. Their league goal difference is 4:10, and only three of their last ten games went over 2.5 goals. Rayo drew 1:1 at Osasuna, beat Espanyol 2:1, lost 1:4 at Real Madrid, beat Racing Santander 3:2 and lost 2:5 at Barcelona. Rayo's games are more open: both teams scored in eight of their last ten and six went over 2.5 goals. Understat has Rayo at 1.30 expected goals for and 1.86 against a game.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Getafe vs Rayo team news

Getafe without Uche and Juanmi; Rayo without Batalla, Luiz Felipe and Rațiu.

Getafe
  • OutChristantus UcheKnee injury
  • OutJuanmiMuscle injury
  • DoubtTerratsShoulder injury
  • DoubtEnes ÜnalFitness doubt
  • DoubtZaid RomeroFitness doubt
Rayo
  • OutAugusto BatallaFracture, out until January
  • OutLuiz FelipeCruciate ligament injury
  • OutAndrei RațiuUnavailable
TacticsSports Mole and SportsGambler agree that Getafe miss Christantus Uche (knee) and Juanmi (muscle), and that Terrats (shoulder), Enes Ünal and Zaid Romero are doubts. SportsGambler also has Djené and Satriano suspended, but Sports Mole puts both in its predicted line-up, so we treat that as unconfirmed. Rayo are without goalkeeper Augusto Batalla (fracture, out until January), Luiz Felipe (cruciate ligament, out for the season) and Andrei Rațiu, according to both previews. Getafe played on Thursday in Romania in the Conference League and host Lugano on Thursday, so Bordalás may rotate. Rayo last finished a match on 19 September: their home game with Athletic on 10 October was stopped in the first half because of fan protests against the club's owner, Sports Mole reports. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.

In the news

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 2

Who do others back in Getafe vs Rayo?

Both previews we read expect one or two goals; neither expects a clear winner.

SourcePick
Sports Mole1:1
SportsGamblerGetafe 1:0
Our positionWe side with Sports Mole on the score and with both previews on the number of goals. The bookmakers agree: their line implies about 1.9 goals, the lowest of any match we looked at today.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Getafe vs Rayo predicted score

A tight Madrid neighbours' game with few clear chances.

Getafe will defend in a compact block, as they always do under Bordalás, and play for set pieces and second balls. Rayo will have more of the ball, but after a month without a finished match we expect a careful first half hour. 1:1 is our main score and 1:0 the alternative. Under 2.5 goals wins with 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:0 or 0:2 and loses with 2:1, 1:2 or any score with three goals or more.

Predicted score
1:1
Alternative
1:0
Your score
GET1
RAY1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Getafe vs Rayo pick: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think this stays a low-scoring game. Bordalás builds from defence, and his Getafe have created only 0.81 expected goals a game and scored four in eight rounds, so we do not see them adding two or three. Rayo arrive after a month without a finished match and should start with caution. Six draws in the last ten meetings tell the same story. Our main score is 1:1 and the alternative 1:0; both win the pick.

Our probability60–64%
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals
Odds1.51
Main scenario1:1
Wins with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Loses with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Our scenario
1:1alternative 1:0

What would change our mind Getafe fielding a reserve side before Lugano while Rayo start their full front three: then a game with three goals or more becomes the likelier result.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Getafe win2.9434%
Draw2.9633.8%
Rayo win2.6238.2%
Getafe or draw1.4768%
Rayo or draw1.3971.9%
Over 2.5 goals2.4740.5%
Under 2.5 goals1.5166.2%
Both teams to score2.0848.1%
Both teams not to score1.7357.8%

Odds snapshot 19 OCT 06:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why the goals could come.

  1. Rayo play open games: they conceded 16 goals in seven league matches, and six of their last ten went over 2.5 goals.
  2. After 30 days without a finished match Rayo could start loose, while Getafe may be tired after the trip to Romania.
  3. One goal on either side late in the game is enough to turn a 1:1 into a losing 2:1.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: under 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but Rayo's games went over 2.5 goals in six of their last ten, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.51
Published
19 OCT 07:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:1Under 2.5 goals at 1.51
Happened
1:1Draw

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.