Rolex Shanghai Masters picks, with the reasoning behind every call.
We back Zverev to win the match: he holds serve in 94.7% of his games over his last ten matches with stats, against Bublik’s 86.2%, and is 59-9 as the favourite this season.
Analysis only. Our pick: de Minaur in three sets · analysis only. He is 25-10 on hard courts this season, but he retired in the Beijing final a week ago and Khachanov has the better serve and return numbers lately.
Analysis only. Our pick: Alcaraz 2:0, about 6:4, 6:3, which keeps Bergs inside +5.5 games · analysis only. Bergs serves big and holds 81.8% of his service games, so we expect one break a set, not a rout.
We back Auger-Aliassime to win the match: the world No. 5 serves 10.1 aces a match on hard courts to Carreno Busta’s 3.3 and is 21-9 on hard courts this season.
Analysis only. Our pick: Cerundolo +6.5 games. We expect Alcaraz to win, but not by a landslide: four of his five first sets in Tokyo went to a tie-break, and he plays his first match four days after that title.
We back Vacherot to win the match: he beat Tsitsipas and Fils in Tokyo last week, while Baez has won one of his last five.
We back Djokovic to win the match: he is 8-0 against Hurkacz, and Hurkacz retired hurt in Beijing four days ago.
Analysis only. Our pick: Rune in three sets. One week after a 55-minute defeat in Tokyo, his level is the one thing nobody can measure yet.