Every ATP and WTA match we analysed, newest first, with the tournaments we follow week by week.
We back Paul to win the match: he has lost eight games in two Shanghai matches and beat Bergs 6:1, 6:2 at Indian Wells this year, while Bergs serves 4.8 double faults a match.
We back Bencic to win the match: all three models we checked give her about two chances in three, and Kartal is playing only her third tournament since a long injury break.
Analysis only. Our pick: Pegula in three sets · analysis only. She is the better player on paper, but this is her first match since the US Open semi-final and a withdrawal from Beijing with an injury.
Analysis only. Our pick: Paolini in three sets · analysis only. Bartunkova is the favourite, but she needed three sets on Tuesday after the best and longest week of her career in Beijing.
We back Shnaider to win the match: she dropped four games against Katie Boulter on Tuesday, while Putintseva needed 2 hours 51 minutes to get through her first round.
We back Svitolina to win the match: she is 31-10 on hard courts this season, and Samsonova needed three sets to get through her first round on Tuesday.
Analysis only. Our pick: Davidovich Fokina in three sets · analysis only. He leads their meetings 5-2 and beat Hurkacz in the Chengdu final two weeks ago, but Hurkacz has beaten Novak Djokovic this week and the market makes him a slight favourite.
We back Zverev to win the match: he holds serve in 94.7% of his games over his last ten matches with stats, against Bublik’s 86.2%, and is 59-9 as the favourite this season.
Analysis only. Our pick: de Minaur in three sets · analysis only. He is 25-10 on hard courts this season, but he retired in the Beijing final a week ago and Khachanov has the better serve and return numbers lately.
We back Shnaider to win the match: she is 18-12 on hard courts this season to Boulter’s 14-11 and has won both their meetings, the 2024 Hong Kong final 6:1, 6:2.